JPWX
Member
If there were to be capping issues, we wouldn't be able to see it until the day before or day of the event. Waiting for the 12z GEFS to finish up. Taking forever. LOL!
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The Canadian is not to be taken seriously with anything to do with the boundary layer, just FYI. It always does this and it always ends up being wrong.Good thought, something to keep in mind along with trough timing.
Another possible factor are LCL heights, the Canadian wants to put temps into the low-mid 80s in the warm sector edging right on that 15-20 TD difference. Seems to be the only model doing that right now.
The D5 discussion mentions an "extensive elevated mixed layer". Assuming this means there will be a widespread cap in place?If there were to be capping issues, we wouldn't be able to see it until the day before or day of the event. Waiting for the 12z GEFS to finish up. Taking forever. LOL!
A lot of folks drawing comparisons to 4/14/12 (for fair reason); important to note just how intense the parameters were for that day. STPs >10, SCP >50 and bonkers shear.
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I do remember that the watch probs were the highest probabilities between 4/27 and that one in May 2019Remember that day well. Think we might have had a D2 High in place, my mind is slipping though. I know there was #45 for tornadoes too and it may have been #60. Got a rainwrapped tornado that day but couldn't hardly see anything.
I Never knew the Canadian had that flaw. Will keep that in mind going forward.The Canadian is not to be taken seriously with anything to do with the boundary layer, just FYI. It always does this and it always ends up being wrong.
I just want to clarify. I'm not clamoring for this for the sake of people potentially impacted. I just want a good chase day.Seeing downtrends. *Shake my big head*
I know what you mean, I feel like there’s a pretty starved chasing community this season so far haha.I just want to clarify. I'm not clamoring for this for the sake of people potentially impacted. I just want a good chase day.
As per usual, expect some wobbles in the models with respect to threats and impacts. Overall, the synoptics still look very impressive. The 18z GFS holds a higher end D5 through D8 potential.Seeing downtrends. *Shake my big head*
Feel u bro. I feel same way , ridicules so far how it’s played out for the most Dixie and mid south regionsI just want to clarify. I'm not clamoring for this for the sake of people potentially impacted. I just want a good chase day.
Need to keep a watch on this, as it could greatly affect the higher end threat here.
Echoes of 5/20/2019
Oh not trying to call it by any means.Different failure mode there; that was an unexpected (or overlooked by pretty much the entire weather enterprise as an outbreak-killing fly in the ointment) warm nose (cap) at 700mb that suppressed updrafts in the open warm sector. And of course, it's way too early to call next Monday one way or the other.
Always forget about the wildfire factor that day. Excellent points.5/20/2019 had a shallow moist layer because there were so many clouds (and so much smoke) in the warm sector that there was a lack of solar insolation and therefore vertical mixing in the boundary layer.
It was also done in by morning convection, which this event probably will not have much trouble with given the ridging in place prior to the trough's approach on Monday. Whether the convective evolution on Monday afternoon will cause problems with the setup is anyone's guess, but the mesoscale failure modes here are a bit different than that day (potentially iffy timing of the trough on the synoptic scale aside).
Andy:Also I do not tend to think that Monday's event will be reliant on open warm sector initiation to be a bigger event, which is a large part of why 5/20/2019 underperformed.