JPWX
Member
If there were to be capping issues, we wouldn't be able to see it until the day before or day of the event. Waiting for the 12z GEFS to finish up. Taking forever. LOL!
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Svr Wx Event - April 15-17, 2024
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
The Canadian is not to be taken seriously with anything to do with the boundary layer, just FYI. It always does this and it always ends up being wrong.
aujerm
Member
The D5 discussion mentions an "extensive elevated mixed layer". Assuming this means there will be a widespread cap in place?
TheSuckZone
Member
Remember that day well. Think we might have had a D2 High in place, my mind is slipping though. I know there was #45 for tornadoes too and it may have been #60. Got a rainwrapped tornado that day but couldn't hardly see anything.
Tanner
Member
Seeing downtrends. *Shake my big head*
Tomcats Forever!
Member
I do remember that the watch probs were the highest probabilities between 4/27 and that one in May 2019
Tempestas Tonitrua
Member
I Never knew the Canadian had that flaw. Will keep that in mind going forward.
Tanner
Member
I just want to clarify. I'm not clamoring for this for the sake of people potentially impacted. I just want a good chase day.
Tempestas Tonitrua
Member
I know what you mean, I feel like there’s a pretty starved chasing community this season so far haha.
One of these set ups this year will verify. I haven’t looked at any of the latest runs to comment on trends but synoptically speaking, this one has looked the best so far this year. SPC is on board as well. The models sometimes tend to do the-wobble as it gets closer to the date and then reverts.
Good golly
lake.effect
Member
As per usual, expect some wobbles in the models with respect to threats and impacts. Overall, the synoptics still look very impressive. The 18z GFS holds a higher end D5 through D8 potential.
We're almost in range of some of the CAMs, which will be very telling.
tennessee storm chaser
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Feel u bro. I feel same way , ridicules so far how it’s played out for the most Dixie and mid south regions
Need to keep a watch on this, as it could greatly affect the higher end threat here.
Tempestas Tonitrua
Member
Echoes of 5/20/2019
CheeselandSkies
Member
Different failure mode there; that was an unexpected (or overlooked by pretty much the entire weather enterprise as an outbreak-killing fly in the ointment) warm nose (cap) at 700mb that suppressed updrafts in the open warm sector. And of course, it's way too early to call next Monday one way or the other.
Tempestas Tonitrua
Member
Oh not trying to call it by any means.
I probably should have clarified further: the outflow/crapvection cold pool in central-north Oklahoma that the cells that did manage to fire off kept running straight into and dying out. 5/20/2019 also had a shallow moist layer in spots. Very weak LLRs also played a role (as you mentioned on the warm nose at 700mb), Trey has a great video on it.
5/20/2019 had a shallow moist layer because there were so many clouds (and so much smoke) in the warm sector that there was a lack of solar insolation and therefore vertical mixing in the boundary layer.
It was also done in by morning convection especially on the north end, which this event probably will not have much trouble with given the ridging in place prior to the trough's approach on Monday. Whether the convective evolution on Monday afternoon will cause problems with the setup is anyone's guess, but the mesoscale failure modes here are a bit different than that day (potentially iffy timing of the trough on the synoptic scale aside).
It was also done in by morning convection especially on the north end, which this event probably will not have much trouble with given the ridging in place prior to the trough's approach on Monday. Whether the convective evolution on Monday afternoon will cause problems with the setup is anyone's guess, but the mesoscale failure modes here are a bit different than that day (potentially iffy timing of the trough on the synoptic scale aside).
Tempestas Tonitrua
Member
Always forget about the wildfire factor that day. Excellent points.
Also I do not tend to think that Monday's event will be reliant on open warm sector initiation to be a bigger event, which is a large part of why 5/20/2019 underperformed.
Timhsv
Member
Andy:
Since you do have the advanced credentials and knowledge. Why does the atmosphere or pattern even seem subdued somewhat so far this year on the severe weather aspect? Seems so much underperformance besides one event so far?
