Southeast Svr Wx threat April 8-11, 2024

[South AL Wx]

Really weird orientation of the two tornado warning polygons, with confusing storm speeds. One moving north at 25 MPH, the other moving east at 65?

Edit: Annnnnd KHDC seems to have stopped updating on my RadarScope. Swell.

I will note that the 2nd tornado warning was issued by MOB:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
Issued by National Weather Service Mobile AL
1008 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

LIX may be having comms issues.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Really wish KLIX was working right now.

It won’t ever lol they moved the radar. Tightwads should have added a radar where they did at Hammond and kept the one they had at KLIX.

 

[warneagle]

RFD on that thing is nuts

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Could you post the graphic(s) please?

I can't at work right now. You can look it up though at https://www.pivotalweather.com/

 

[OHWX97]

Yeesh, that is a really mean tornado west of Kiln, MS.

 

[TornadoFan]

Now the warning is confirmed.

 

[Clancy]

Insane presentation on velocity approaching Kiln.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Yeesh, that is a really mean tornado west of Kiln, MS.
View attachment 25296

Hometown of Brett Favre.

 

[wx_guy]

Latest HRRR is showing the MCS having tons of UH streaks. Could be a crazy afternoon/evening still to come.

 

[OHWX97]

I believe this is the one that moved north towards Pearl River.

 

[wx_guy]

3-hour STORM-NET showing what we already know: The next 3 hours is going to be a bad situation for southeast LA and coastal MS/AL. Probabilities nearing 80% in southeast Louisiana.

 

[Gail]

My son is in tech school at Keesler in Biloxi, and they actually released them early today. In his 7 months there, they’ve never been released early. Heck, he broke both arms, sprained a wrist, and broke his front teeth out and still had to go to class the next day.

 

[lake.effect]

New Orleans could be in for a rough afternoon. The axis of the highest tornado potential should run through the metro area.

 

[TornadoFan17]

Ugh. IMO they should NEVER pair "large and extremely dangerous tornado"/PDS verbiage with "radar indicated rotation." To use the former it should be "radar confirmed tornado" via a large, deep and persistent TDS; or preferably confirmed via spotter reports.

If they were to use that kind if wordsge on something and it turns out to be a pretty small tornado (or nothing at all), thats how people become indifferent to tornado warnings/PDS warnings.

One of the things I hate about the watch/warning system (and I don't know how to improve it, so it's just a general comment) is how often it leads to a "boy who cried wolf" situation.

So many times a warning will be issued and then... nothing will happen. The radar indicated tornado never does damage. If this happens enough times, people will become indifferent to a tornado warning until the one time where it is actually on the ground and is a life threatening situation.

 

[Clancy]

SPC says short-term tornado risk highest over coastal MS/AL.

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 101, 102 continues.

SUMMARY...A swath of damaging wind with gusts to 70 mph is possible
across southeast Mississippi into far southwest Alabama and the
western Florida Panhandle over the next couple of hours. A couple of
tornadoes also remain possible.

DISCUSSION...The line of convection over southeast MS and far
southeast LA will continue to develop east at around 60 mph. A swath
of damaging gusts will continue. The corridor of greatest risk over
the next couple of hours will be focused closer to the coast across
southeast MS into southwest AL where better low-level moisture and
instability are noted. This area will also align with more favorable
effective SRH greater than 300 m2/s2 and STP values around 1-2.
Furthermore, the MOB VWP indicated an enlarged, and favorably curved
low-level hodograph. This environment will support tornado
potential, either via line embedded mesovortex generation or cell
mergers into the line, as has been observed via radar over the past
30-60 minutes across southeast LA.

..Leitman.. 04/10/2024

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 414

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

 

[wx_guy]

New Orleans area under a Flash Flood Emergency

 

[KevinH]

If they were to use that kind if wordsge on something and it turns out to be a pretty small tornado (or nothing at all), thats how people become indifferent to tornado warnings/PDS warnings.

One of the things I hate about the watch/warning system (and I don't know how to improve it, so it's just a general comment) is how often it leads to a "boy who cried wolf" situation.

So many times a warning will be issued and then... nothing will happen. The radar indicated tornado never does damage. If this happens enough times, people will become indifferent to a tornado warning until the one time where it is actually on the ground and is a life threatening situation.

Yeah…

Most people do not understand that the weather is not a perfect science. There is no way for NWS/SPC to accurately predict what is going to happen. They can’t. lol

Your concerns are one reason I believe they moved to impact based warnings. Radar indicated, confirmed, etc. That gives people a better idea as to what it going on

People also need to remember that what happened with a previous event doesn’t mean nothing won’t happen. It only takes one.

 

[wx_guy]

Yeah…

Most people do not understand that the weather is not a perfect science. There is no way for NWS/SPC to accurately predict what is going to happen. They can’t. lol

Your concerns are one reason I believe they moved to impact based warnings. Radar indicated, confirmed, etc. That gives people a better idea as to what it going on

People also need to remember that what happened with a previous event doesn’t mean nothing won’t happen. It only takes one.

Honestly, in this day of social media, hyperbole, and viral clickbait, I don't even think the NWS New Orleans 2005 Katrina verbiage would have much of an effect anymore. Beyond extreme and irresponsible language being used, most people nowadays will just shrug. Hopefully I'm wrong, but I think the public is desensitized largely.

 

[Clancy]

Honestly, in this day of social media, hyperbole, and viral clickbait, I don't even think the NWS New Orleans 2005 Katrina verbiage would have much of an effect anymore. Beyond extreme and irresponsible language being used, most people nowadays will just shrug. Hopefully I'm wrong, but I think the public is desensitized largely.

"THIS IS CRAZY (NOT CLICKBAIT, WEDGES)"
-Average YouTube video title, accompanied by a neon-colored thumbnail with zero context.

 

[Clancy]

I've been really fascinated by the structure on the mesos on this MCS. Large, sweeping vortexes visible on velocity with tiny couplets located within them. Like vortex-ception.