Southeast Svr Wx threat April 8-11, 2024

[jiharris0220]

^ All of this. People need to understand that the SPC issues risk that mirror the environment, not the outcome of that environment.
If the kinematics show potential for violent tornadoes, then the SPC will act accordingly to such. If none end up occurring, then good, they review what went “wrong” and take that into account for the next event for a better forecast.

 

[wx_guy]

Just got woken up here in Tallahassee to a Flash Flood Emergency on my phone. Not sure how the city looks but law enforcement apparently is reporting major flooding occurring.

 

[wx_guy]

NWS in Tallahassee is reporting multiple water rescues ongoing across the city.

 

[SmokeEater]

Big tor in FL.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

 

[atrainguy]

PDS warning.

 

[Wind Driven Coconut]

Pretty solid tornado for Florida:

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Wind Driven Coconut]

The new cell near Crescent City is going to be a problem. Just got tornado warned.

 

[Clancy]

TOR-warned troublemaker approaching areas north of Daytona Beach.
Note: that area really needs an additional radar site.

 

[TornadoFan]

Confirmed waterspout moving on shore in Tampa

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[buckeye05]

First damage photos coming in. Looks pretty minor. Could be outside the core of the circulation though.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Pretty solid tornado for Florida:

This tornado video brought to you by Abrysvo from Pfizer.

 

[Clancy]

First damage photos coming in. Looks pretty minor. Could be outside the core of the circulation though.
View attachment 25334

That grill was still ready to have a cookout after all that.

 

[JPWX]

NWS Jackson Confirmed Tornado Reports:



Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
559 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024


...NWS Damage Survey for 04/09/24 - 04/10/24 Tornado/Damaging Wind Event...

.UPDATE...Added northern Warren County EF0 tornado and
Scott/Newton significant damaging wind swath.

.Northern Warren County Tornado...

Rating: EF0
Estimated Peak Wind: 75 mph
Path Length /statute/: 2.09 miles
Path Width /maximum/: 0 yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0

Start Date: 04/09/2024
Start Time: 08:00 PM CDT
Start Location: 13 NW Edwards / Warren County / MS
Start Lat/Lon: 32.5017 / -90.7213

End Date: 04/09/2024
End Time: 08:04 PM CDT
End Location: 13 NNW Edwards / Warren County / MS
End Lat/Lon: 32.5156 / -90.6898

Survey Summary:
A brief, weak EF0 tornado touched down near the intersection of
Ballground Road and Possum Hollow Road. The tornado downed a tree
onto a church at the start of the path. The tornado tracked
northeast along Possum Hollow Road downing intermittent trees and
large branches. The tornado dissipated in the vicinity of Oak
Ridge Road. Maximum estimated winds were 75 mph with the maximum
width of 150 yards.

.Learned Tornado...

Rating: EF1
Estimated Peak Wind: 100 mph
Path Length /statute/: 4.57 miles
Path Width /maximum/: 75 yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0

Start Date: 04/09/2024
Start Time: 08:23 PM CDT
Start Location: 2 NW Learned / Hinds County / MS
Start Lat/Lon: 32.2262 / -90.5755

End Date: 04/09/2024
End Time: 08:27 PM CDT
End Location: 4 NE Learned / Hinds County / MS
End Lat/Lon: 32.2453 / -90.5036

Survey Summary:
A brief tornado touched down late in the evening on April 9th
near Bush Bottom Road. The tornado initially did scattered damage
to branches in open farmland but quickly strengthened to its
maximum intensity, estimated at EF-1 with 100 mph maximum winds,
as it destroyed two outbuildings near Bush Bottom Road. The
tornado continued generally east where it crossed the Natchez
Trace and and Bill Downing Road. Damage in these areas was mostly
tree and vegetation but some generally minor damage was noted to
roofs in the area. Falling trees contributed to additional damage
including downing power lines and fencing. A few homes were more
heavily damaged due to trees falling onto them. The tornado
weakened and subsequently dissipated as it neared Dupree Road.

..Scott/Newton Damaging Wind Swath...

Rating: TSTM/Wind
Estimated Peak Wind: 100 mph
Path Length /statute/: 13 to 14 miles
Path Width /maximum/: 7040 yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 5

Start Date: 04/09/2024
Start Time: 10:35 PM CDT
Start Location: 4 NE Forest / Scott County / MS
Start Lat/Lon: 32.3915 / -89.4167

End Date: 04/10/2024
End Time: 10:55 PM CDT
End Location: 4 E Conehatta / Newton County / MS
End Lat/Lon: 32.457 / -89.2076

Survey Summary:
This swath of significant damaging winds began east northeast of
Forest where it downed thousands trees and numerous power lines
and poles. Trees were uprooted and snapped. Nearly four dozen
homes were damaged by both fallen trees and wind, damage ranged
from minor to extensive. There were 5 injuries, 2 in mobile homes
on Towner Road and McMillan Road, and 3 in a house on Jim Owens
Road. The peak of the damage occurred just west of Salem road
near Old Highway 80 north of Lake where tree damage was extensive
with peak winds of 100 mph. It then continued through the south
side of Conehatta where it then decreased a bit to around 80 mph
with numerous trees uprooted. It then weakened below significant
threshold northwest of Decatur. The swath length was almost
15 miles, and its maximum width was between 3 and 4 miles.

.Lake Camden Tornado...

Rating: EF0
Estimated Peak Wind: 85 mph
Path Length /statute/: 0.70 miles
Path Width /maximum/: 150 yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0

Start Date: 04/10/2024
Start Time: 04:35 AM CDT
Start Location: 6 E Flora / Madison County / MS
Start Lat/Lon: 32.5369 / -90.2021

End Date: 04/10/2024
End Time: 04:36 AM CDT
End Location: 6 E Flora / Madison County / MS
End Lat/Lon: 32.5456 / -90.1964

Survey Summary:
A brief tornado touched down near the northwestern side of the
Mannsdale Upper Elementary campus in the predawn hours of April
10th. The tornado moved northeast producing intermittent, mostly
tree damage in a path that crossed MS-463, Mannsdale Road, and
then across residential areas along Livingston Drive. The maximum
estimated winds were estimated to be about 85 mph. The tornado
dissipated near Bidon Drive.

 

[A Guy]

It seems like with a large number of US severe events we have an increasing slap fight on this forum and elsewhere as to whether an event was a bust or not. Now I don't have much of a dog in this fight as I live somewhere where probabilistic tornado forecasts (or tornado warnings for that matter) don't exist and I'm not an active storm chaser, so it's only my curiosity at stake.

A few years ago Victor Gensini started publishing probabilistic hindcasts (https://atlas.niu.edu/pperfect/) which seem to be based on reports (rather than survey data). I've no opinion of him as a researcher, but the method was published in BAMS (https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/101/8/bamsD190321.xml) so it had enough cachet to pass peer review. I've seen a couple of these posted here (or on tweets posted here), but it surprises me that people don't try to reach for more objective measures every time this very irritating argument occurs.

So those who want to argue over what happened can interpret these: