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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - June 23rd-27th, 2023

TH2002

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Is anyone else surprised at the lack of activity at this time?


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Definitely bizarre how this setup dropped a significant drillbit in the Indianapolis area before anyone expected tornadoes to form, and subsequently hit a brick wall afterwards.

Although, all of the cells moving into KY are hooking again. Especially worried about the isolated one crossing into far northern KY, and will probably see more tornadoes if the environment is conducive.
 
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Definitely bizarre how this setup dropped a significant drillbit in the Indianapolis area before anyone expected tornadoes to form, and subsequently hit a brick wall afterwards.

Although, all of the cells moving into KY are hooking again. Especially worried about the isolated one crossing into far northern KY, and will probably see more tornadoes if the environment is conducive.
The isolated one is just about following a path where the HRRR painted a purple UH swath earlier.
 

ColdFront

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Definitely bizarre how this setup dropped a significant drillbit in the Indianapolis area before anyone expected tornadoes to form, and subsequently hit a brick wall afterwards.

Although, all of the cells moving into KY are hooking again. Especially worried about the isolated one crossing into far northern KY, and will probably see more tornadoes if the environment is conducive.
Moisture quality/cap maybe?

All the cells in WKY died as well.
 

andyhb

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Earlier convection stabilized the low levels, moisture is likely shallow and therefore capping increased further south/east.
 

andyhb

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So it’s time to throw in the towel for Ohio. How about Kentucky?


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I could see the cells near Louisville trying again but they're facing an uphill battle against capping and outflow.
 

TH2002

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There's still no warning for the damaging tornado in the Detroit metro?!
To be completely honest I have my doubts that's a genuine debris signature. It seems to be more lined up with the area of lower precip on reflectivity than anything else.
 

TH2002

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I don't agree. The CC drop lines up with a velocity couplet that moved through Hazel Park, which was much more apparent on TDTW.
View attachment 20914
View attachment 20915
TDTW has been acting wonky for me and I can't get it to display anything, but after looking at my own screenshots from DTX I think you're right. Definitely deepened and moved clear NE for three or four scans.
 

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I am glad that we made it through the MCS okay (as usual, the worst weather we get here). Fortunate that we weren't as unstable as we could have been or it could have been worse.
 

TH2002

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What a strange day this has been. A high ceiling with a rather violent start consisting of a tornado in the Indianapolis area and a march of supercells across the state, only for things to completely nosedive afterwards. But at this point, I wouldn't be shocked if we get one final surprise rogue storm to spin up a brief but strong tornado somewhere in North Mississippi - you know, 'cuz June 2023...
 

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Still haven't heard much from that significant tornado between Alfordsville and French Lick IN from earlier, there are a number of rural farms and residences around that area. Given the height of the TDS and the strength of the meso, I wouldn't be surprised if that tornado was EF3+.
 
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