Severe Weather Threat - June 17th-18th, 2023

[KCweatherboy]

The 2 soundings I looked at from the 12km NAM in Arkansas (Central/Northeast) are absolutely ridiculous. One might be a bad sounding, but nonetheless, both are insane.

89 supercell composite and 28 STP is insane

 

[Austin Dawg]

00z NAM sounding for Northwest MS, Itawamba County, MS, and Monroe County, MS late Sunday going into Monday.

Tell the Weather Gods enough already.

After a high of 98, we had a nice SVR Thunderstorm with a deluge of wind, rain, and quarter-sized hail.

Forecast - Hi of 103 - 105 through Tues, with HRRR showing more thunderstorms late Sat and Sun.

 

[JBishopwx]

Sunday:

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI
AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from portions of the
Ozarks to the central Gulf Coast states. Damaging gusts will be the
main hazard with these storms, though isolated large to very large
hail also is possible.

...ArkLaTex vicinity to the Central Gulf Coast...

A few midlevel shortwave impulses will be the focus for severe
thunderstorm activity from the ArkLaTex vicinity to the central Gulf
Coast and parts of the FL Peninsula on Sunday. One wave will be
located over the FL Peninsula during the morning. A cluster or line
of southward-propagating convection over the central Peninsula may
be ongoing at the beginning of the period, posing mainly a risk for
sporadic strong gusts given strong instability, steep midlevel lapse
rates and a high PW airmass.

Another convectively enhanced impulse is forecast across
southern/coastal MS/AL Sunday morning. Convection associated with
this activity will quickly shift offshore by mid-morning, as it
tracks southeast along the marine front and narrow zone of weak
inhibition along an axis of strong instability.

Southerly low-level flow through the day will maintain upper 60s to
low 70s dewpoints across the central Gulf Coast/Lower MS Valley
ahead of the main mid/upper shortwave trough, which is forecast to
be over the southern Plains Sunday morning. An additional cluster or
bowing segment (a continuation of overnight storms from the Day
1/Sat period) is forecast to be ongoing over eastern OK at the start
of the period. This activity may be strong to severe, and is
forecast to shift east/southeast along an instability gradient
oriented northwest to southeast from AR toward southern MS/AL. Early
capping over the region is expected to erode as increasing
large-scale ascent, and warm advection ahead of the shortwave
trough, overspreads the region. One or more bowing clusters of
storms is expected through the morning and into the
afternoon/evening. This will result in swaths of
strong/severe/damaging gusts. Given large instability and steep
midlevel lapse rates amid strong vertical shear, widely scattered
large to isolated very large hail also will be possible.

..Leitman.. 06/17/2023

 

[buckeye05]

Any idea why SPC doesn't seem to be biting on the idea of a significant tornado threat? Seems like higher than 2% is warranted.

 

[akt1985]

Today’s severe risk highlighted by the SPC goes from eastern Colorado all the way to central Florida. Very few times I’ve seen that big a severe risk west to east.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Any idea why SPC doesn't seem to be biting on the idea of a significant tornado threat? Seems like higher than 2% is warranted.

Bulk shear is t that impressive for one , seems like a decent mcs event still with wind damage

 

[UncleJuJu98]

HRW-WRF model shows a nasty bow echo /derecho through Mississippi into southern Alabama.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Should have a modest tornado threat over southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama this afternoon. Probably should be bumped up to a 5% risk ; Albeit damaging winds and hail are the main threat.

A outflow boundary should meander its way up there into that vicinity says the NWS of mobile. The convective line from last night/ early this morning pushed it right off the gulf coast.

 

[JPWX]

Wouldn't surprise me if the Enhanced Risk gets expanded more into North MS. In my opinion, it should.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Upgraded a 5% contour along the gulf coast.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[Clancy]

18Z NAM 3km showing an unpleasant looking situation for E AL and W GA on Monday.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Tornado warning for the gulf coast of Mississippi

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Impressive hook echo on radar

 

[atrainguy]

A tornado watch was just issued for KS/OK/TX.

 

[atrainguy]

"Observed" tornado warning just issued in Alabama into Florida. Hopefully the polygon being pointed right at Pensacola won't end up being a bad thing soon.



Also, first Plains warning just issued in New Mexico near OK border. Only radar indicated at the moment.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[atrainguy]

Pretty storm in OK panhandle.

 

[andyhb]

Ongoing tornado and a beauty near Aspermont, TX.