Severe Weather Threat - June 17th-18th, 2023

[JPWX]

The 3km NAM is having difficulties.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The EURO presents a strong low level jet. The GFS has been much less impressive, but appears to be an outlier.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Heads up on the tornado threat tomorrow across southern AL, Mobile Bay area into the FL panhandle as guidance has picked up steam on the risk.

 

[JPWX]

Sounding off the 12km NAM in North MS for late Sunday into Monday.

 

[JPWX]

The 2 soundings I looked at from the 12km NAM in Arkansas (Central/Northeast) are absolutely ridiculous. One might be a bad sounding, but nonetheless, both are insane.

 

[Clancy]

The 2 soundings I looked at from the 12km NAM in Arkansas (Central/Northeast) are absolutely ridiculous. One might be a bad sounding, but nonetheless, both are insane.

General dynamics in that area the last several runs have been assuredly bonkers. Reeeeaaally hoping they don't come close to verifying.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Hailing here at my house marble size northeast of Birmingham. Anybody know someone at the nws of bham? There's no severe warning.

 

[JPWX]

Our power just came back on a few minutes ago. Got a lot of heavy rainfall and thunder/lightning.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Ping pong size hail in northeast of remlap my friend says.

They finally warned it.

 

[Gail]

Driving from Tuscaloosa to Columbus - around Gordo. My town of Caledonia had golfball-softball+ sized hail. Hoping we don’t have damage when we get home.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Driving from Tuscaloosa to Columbus - around Gordo. My town of Caledonia had golfball-softball+ sized hail. Hoping we don’t have damage when we get home.

View attachment 20654

View attachment 20655

View attachment 20656

View attachment 20657

Golf ball size hail from my friend about 5 minutes away from me

 

[Tomcats Forever!]

The 2 soundings I looked at from the 12km NAM in Arkansas (Central/Northeast) are absolutely ridiculous. One might be a bad sounding, but nonetheless, both are insane.

Go home NAM, you're drunk. (Or on meth)

 

[JPWX]

Driving from Tuscaloosa to Columbus - around Gordo. My town of Caledonia had golfball-softball+ sized hail. Hoping we don’t have damage when we get home.

View attachment 20654

View attachment 20655

View attachment 20656

View attachment 20657

That greenish color is usually indicative of a hail core I believe. That's crazy! All this is crazy.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

That greenish color is usually indicative of a hail core I believe. That's crazy! All this is crazy.

I've always associated that with tornadic storms. Looking at radar velocities its been spinning pretty good up high in the atmosphere.


Currently that same storm has a absolutely massive hail core on radar.

 

[Gail]

I've always associated that with tornadic storms. Looking at radar velocities its been spinning pretty good up high in the atmosphere.


Currently that same storm has an absolutely massive hail core on radar.

It was showing 4” hail on RadarScope. We got a few pellets but skirted north of the worst of it. We did see some chasers out. ‍

 

[Gail]

 

[Gail]

Even larger ones pictured in the comments.

 

[JPWX]

00z NAM sounding for Northwest MS, Itawamba County, MS, and Monroe County, MS late Sunday going into Monday.

 

[Clancy]

00z NAM sounding for Northwest MS, Itawamba County, MS, and Monroe County, MS late Sunday going into Monday.

NAM is definitely refusing to let up here. Definitely not a fan of the reflectivity presentation on it for Sunday or Monday.

 

[JPWX]

If the NAM is correct, then I would expect to see SPC ramp up the tornado threat outside of the damaging wind/large hail potential. Wouldn't be surprised to see a Enhanced Risk by tomorrow with the potential for a further upgrade to Moderate (mainly for damaging wind if so)