Severe Weather 2024

[KevinH]

Go figure, for the last several runs (although it did just kind of abruptly pop up with yesterday's 06Z run, with a rather different look prior to that) the GFS has been advertising a BEAUTIFUL setup in Iowa a week from now, Sunday 4/14. Broad-based neutral to slightly negatively tilted trough, left exit region punching into the warm sector beneath a cold pocket aloft, screaming LLJ - but I know I won't be able to chase that day because it's my mom's birthday.

Well yeah… you should sing instead of chase that day…

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Well yeah… you should sing instead of chase that day…

Phew...it went away on today's 12Z run after being there for about 5 runs straight up until the 06Z. Although the general pattern isn't too far off so it could come back. This run, the main trough cuts off in the southwest with the stronger flow confined to the southern Plains.

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

Go figure, for the last several runs (although it did just kind of abruptly pop up with yesterday's 06Z run, with a rather different look prior to that) the GFS has been advertising a BEAUTIFUL setup in Iowa a week from now, Sunday 4/14. Broad-based neutral to slightly negatively tilted trough, left exit region punching into the warm sector beneath a cold pocket aloft, screaming LLJ - but I know I won't be able to chase that day because it's my mom's birthday.

You could be like Reed Timmer and take your mom chasing like he did for Mother’s Day a few years back haha

On another note, I haven’t had a chance to look at the El Niño transition to Enso neutral update.
Worth pondering if any el niño “teleconnection remnants” that remain could still play a part in influencing weather for April. Similar to how its influence was felt January to Mid-March severe weather wise. I know the official prediction was nino to neutral some time in April with a transition to La Niña later in the year. Could yield more “coastal based” threats instead of incursions into Dixie proper.

Not a safe assumption by any means, especially for April, the premier southern Severe weather month. Seems like last year we all thought April would be crazy after big outbreaks in January, March, and April 1st but it was a rather quiet month by April standards.

 

[TH2002]

Go figure, for the last several runs (although it did just kind of abruptly pop up with yesterday's 06Z run, with a rather different look prior to that) the GFS has been advertising a BEAUTIFUL setup in Iowa a week from now, Sunday 4/14. Broad-based neutral to slightly negatively tilted trough, left exit region punching into the warm sector beneath a cold pocket aloft, screaming LLJ - but I know I won't be able to chase that day because it's my mom's birthday.

Kill two birds with one stone. Take your mom storm chasing for her birthday.

 

[MichelleH]

Currently a tornado warning in IL.

 

[MichelleH]

Heads up @JPWX -

 

[JPWX]

Heads up @JPWX -

View attachment 25193

Hopefully I can avoid a Tornado Warning this evening

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Couple of distinct supercell structures near the TN/MS line, with modest couplets apparent, but not warned even for SVR.

 

[JPWX]

Couple of distinct supercell structures near the TN/MS line, with modest couplets apparent, but not warned even for SVR.

And not even a Flood Watch either for North MS yet. But not to worry. 4-7 inches of rain with locally 7+ thru Thursday won't cause any significant issues whatsoever..... LOL!

 

[Clancy]

April will be loud, according to CIPS.

 

[akt1985]

The eclipse is over now and the tornadoes held off until after the event nor did the world end. I’m glad over Texas and Arkansas the sun came out at the last minute for the eclipse.

 

[TheSuckZone]

The eclipse is over now and the tornadoes held off until after the event nor did the world end. I’m glad over Texas and Arkansas the sun came out at the last minute for the eclipse.

Exactly what someone would say if the world was going to end, you're not fooling me!

 

[wx_guy]

SPC has a D7 area in the Plains highlighted...just in case anyone wants to make a thread lol

 

[JPWX]

And watch for this to expand into southern Plains and Deep South.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Already a 30 percent for day 6 , fairly impressive …. Central Oklahoma looks be target next Monday

 

[aujerm]

Already a 30 percent for day 6 , fairly impressive …. Central Oklahoma looks be target next Monday

Pretty strong wording in the convective outlook as well.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

This is the system I was mentioning a few days ago. Fortunately for me it slowed down a bit AND I was able to get next week Wednesday off from work, so although I won't be able to chase Monday I should be able to chase the Midwest portion of the event Tuesday afternoon/evening, assuming it doesn't completely fall apart.

 

[lake.effect]

Hey all,
Long time lurker, first time poster. Love to see this forum continue to go strong!

One question that has plagued me in my years of armchair meteorology: what's the deal with "contaminated soundings"? Specifically on short range CAMs (NAM in particular). Often the CAMs produce monster STP parameters but the sounding indicates "marginal tor" as the hazard. Yesterday's model runs had a few good examples of this phenomenon.

Curious to understand what causes this and why the agencies that develop the model change them so they don't create those anomolies.

Thanks!

 

[cincywx]

current 30% includes okc but it will certainly evolve between now and then

 

[Clancy]

Hey all,
Long time lurker, first time poster. Love to see this forum continue to go strong!

One question that has plagued me in my years of armchair meteorology: what's the deal with "contaminated soundings"? Specifically on short range CAMs (NAM in particular). Often the CAMs produce monster STP parameters but the sounding indicates "marginal tor" as the hazard. Yesterday's model runs had a few good examples of this phenomenon.

Curious to understand what causes this and why the agencies that develop the model change them so they don't create those anomolies.

Thanks!

Welcome! Coming from a mere hobbyist, those model hazard modes are algorithmically-driven and as such they can definitely have their moments. When a sounding is contaminated by the presence of convection, usually a thunderstorm, it distorts the presentation of the atmosphere in that location, causing it to present differently from the actual environment. In these cases, since the environment on the modelled sounding is "off" from what is expected in the ambient atmosphere surrounding a tornadic supercell, it'll give off a marginal hazard type.