Severe Weather 2024

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

There was a few on here

I just thought those were observations. I don’t think anyone on here really hopes for a horrific outbreak. I think this is just the classic tension that arises in a “storm enthusiast” community.

People that want severe weather and are fascinated by it because they want to chase it and track it, and others that do it as a science but would rather not actually see an outbreak. I don’t think anyone on here actually wants an EF5 or a major outbreak, if there are they are most likely children who don’t understand the magnitude of those events. I do think in the former crowd there is some disappointment, especially amongst chasers when things don’t pan out. Hell, even Tim Marshall has recorded on storm track his disappointment at a few busts during the plains seasons of the 90s.

It doesn’t mean they were rooting for anything bad to happen, and I understand some are pretty brash about their disappointment which can be a turn off. It’s just the nature of the hobby. Some like to see severe weather. Others don’t.

I just think there’s this instant reaction to condemn when someone either says an event didn’t perform as was originally thought, or even on the flip side, when some wishcasts.

It’s human nature, I don’t think saying those folks have incorrect morals or are immoral in their passion for severe weather accomplishes anything. It can be off putting and kind of implies those people actually want wide spread destruction, when I think 99.9% that couldn’t be further from the truth. It’s all part of the science and the hobby.

Edit: fixed some words

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

There was a few on here

Think the thrill of power Mother Nature takes over chaser adrenaline…. I personally went through 3. Ef4 s

 

[Clancy]

Regardless of tornadoes, I'm thankful there haven't been reports of serious casualties from yesterday's event. That being said, we are in April, and we're going to have to watch for signs of activity anywhere from the Plains into the South as we trudge deeper into the month.

 

[TH2002]

There was a few on here

What? You mean you don't agree that Nws forecasts r garbag?

(Actually, I think I should just take @CheeselandSkies advice by throwing twitter in a dumpster and setting it on fire...)

 

[Clancy]

What? You mean you don't agree that Nws forecasts r garbag?

(Actually, I think I should just take @CheeselandSkies advice by throwing twitter in a dumpster and setting it on fire...)
View attachment 24981

Pretty sure we'd have world peace if Twitter exploded.

 

[JPWX]

What? You mean you don't agree that Nws forecasts r garbag?

(Actually, I think I should just take @CheeselandSkies advice by throwing twitter in a dumpster and setting it on fire...)
View attachment 24981

Lord have mercy. Boy if I posted my hurricane forecast on Twitter, I would be called everything in the book. I'm glad I'm not on it anymore.

 

[jiharris0220]

The day this site falls will be when it even becomes half as debilitated as twitter is.

 

[JPWX]

Meanwhile:

NWS JAN:
After a quiet stretch of weather, a more active stretch will begin
to unfold across the forecast area through the course of the day
Sunday, and persist through at least Tuesday night. During this
time, a mid/upper level low pressure system will shift east
southeast from the Four Corners region into the central plains
states. This will send a cold front east into the region late
Sunday. As the aforementioned mid/upper low slows and lifts north
into the Great Lakes region Monday into Tuesday, the front will
stall over the forecast area. Come Tuesday into Tuesday night,
another closed low and its attendant trough will swing east
southeast from the Four Corners region into the central and southern
plains.

As all of this unfolds, rain chances will be on the increase across
the CWA Sunday afternoon through Tuesday night. It will also be
during this period, and possibly continuing Wednesday into Thursday,
that multiple rounds of potentially heavy rain could affect the
forecast area. As a result, the potential for flash flooding and
river flooding could exist during this latter half of the forecast
period. In addition to this, some potential for severe storms could
exist across a portion of the forecast during this Monday to
mid/week timeframe. This scenario is still several days out.
Therefore, please continue to check back for the latest forecast
updates.

NWS MEG:
The early to midweek pattern looks generally wet and unsettled.
Another cold front will approach on Tuesday, attached to a more
robust surface low ejecting from the southern Plains. Expect
several rounds of showers and thunderstorms throughout the week as
multiple fronts and systems interact with each other and take
turns stalling out. The most likely period for the heaviest rain
will be Wednesday morning and afternoon. PoPs are in the 60-70%
range all day before and during FROPA. In addition, ensemble
guidance suggests ample instability for widespread showers and
thunderstorms that could produce upwards of 2 inches of rain in
this short period from Tuesday night through Wednesday.

 

[JPWX]

What? You mean you don't agree that Nws forecasts r garbag?

(Actually, I think I should just take @CheeselandSkies advice by throwing twitter in a dumpster and setting it on fire...)
View attachment 24981

I don't. Even though I have disagreements with how few go about forecasting severe weather, the NWS, SPC, and NHC have the best forecasters that work tirelessly year round. They don't get enough credit to be honest and by the same token, the meteorologists in general don't either.

 

[TH2002]

I don't. Even though I have disagreements with how few go about forecasting severe weather, the NWS, SPC, and NHC have the best forecasters that work tirelessly year round. They don't get enough credit to be honest and by the same token, the meteorologists in general don't either.

I was obviously joking lol. I reserve my criticisms of the NWS for poor damage surveys, and even then try to be as constructive as I can.

I know you already know this, but for those out there who don't get it, the fact of the matter is: forecasting is extremely complicated, imperfect and will continue to be imperfect for a long, long time. Probably forever, at the very least for the remainder of the lifetimes of most people alive today.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

View attachment 24981

"Suck and tired?" Does that have anything to do with the "Suck Zone"?

Although, that actually segues into the post I came on here to make. Remember how I said to get pumped for the 2024 chase season I was gonna make an edit of my storm footage to Van Halen's "Humans Being"? Well, I went ahead and did it.

 

[MichelleH]

The day this site falls will be when it even becomes half as debilitated as twitter is.

Not happening.

 

[TH2002]

"Suck and tired?" Does that have anything to do with the "Suck Zone"?

Although, that actually segues into the post I came on here to make. Remember how I said to get pumped for the 2024 chase season I was gonna make an edit of my storm footage to Van Halen's "Humans Being"? Well, I went ahead and did it.

No one here knows what terms like "suck and tired" and "garbag" mean, but over on birdsite it's just business as usual

Love the video BTW! You'd think that I would have hoarded enough tornado footage by now (2,680 clips to be exact) to use some of it and make my own music video of sorts set to Van Halen's "Respect the Wind" yet I've never gotten around to it... maybe I just need more clips?

Me: sees a tornado video that's not filmed vertically
My OCD: DOWNLOAD IT NOW

 

[Tanner]

GFS and Euro both are on opposite ends for what happens around the 10th-12th. Euro would likely result in an event somewhere in the Ohio Valley and Southeast. with dew points spreading all the way to the great lakes. GFS would be blue skies and sunshine, lol. Obviously we have the system on the 6th-7th to watchout for first.

 

[CentralKyWeather]

Something that is garnishing me in a curious manner is the potential for an overachiever on Sunday afternoon.
Sufficient shear, good mid level lapse rates, if dewpoints can get into the 60s on Sunday in Western Kentucky area it looks promising for an event.

 

[Clancy]

Interesting setup on the Plains today. Not sure it'll produce anything but it sure does look beautiful on satellite.

 

[TheSuckZone]

A dust storm. It is producing dust lol

 

[JPWX]

We have this week's threat then another potential threat late weekend/next week (15th after timeframe), and likely more threats thereafter.

From a long range forecasting standpoint, this is going exactly as I predicted. Slow start in March but then April the main month.

March had 66 tornadoes. (3 year tornado average for March is 193)
April has had 83 thus far. (3 year tornado average for April is 148)

 

[KevinH]

We have this week's threat then another potential threat late weekend/next week (15th after timeframe), and likely more threats thereafter.

From a long range forecasting standpoint, this is going exactly as I predicted. Slow start in March but then April the main month.

March had 66 tornadoes. (3 year tornado average for March is 193)
April has had 83 thus far. (3 year tornado average for April is 148)

The SPC also mentions the 14/15th timeframe in their D8 from today. That will probably end up being a separate thread lol (due to the potential “break” between 12th-13th)

April seems like it’s going to be BUSY… but that isn’t really surprising bc you know… *APRIL* lol

 

[CheeselandSkies]

The SPC also mentions the 14/15th timeframe in their D8 from today. That will probably end up being a separate thread lol (due to the potential “break” between 12th-13th)

April seems like it’s going to be BUSY… but that isn’t really surprising bc you know… *APRIL* lol

Go figure, for the last several runs (although it did just kind of abruptly pop up with yesterday's 06Z run, with a rather different look prior to that) the GFS has been advertising a BEAUTIFUL setup in Iowa a week from now, Sunday 4/14. Broad-based neutral to slightly negatively tilted trough, left exit region punching into the warm sector beneath a cold pocket aloft, screaming LLJ - but I know I won't be able to chase that day because it's my mom's birthday.