Archive March 18-20th, 2018 Severe Weather

[Mike S]

Madison County schools dismissing at 12:30 Monday

 

[jmills]

Amateur question: on a scale of 0-11 this is an 11 on significant tornado parameters for Huntsville tomorrow?
Also is 0.15 a sample value or is anything over that considered significant?

The decimals are probabilities of strong/violent tornadoes based off of the various parameters. As for STP, 2-3 is significant, 11 is insane.

 

[andyhb]

Figured I'd emerge from the woodwork and comment on this since it is a pretty high-ceiling potential.



There are a number of things working for this event especially in terms of having a sustained discrete mode. Should we see the degree of low level instability and shear that models are indicating, there is certainly the potential for a significant event with long-tracked strong/violent tornadoes possible. Large hail also seems like basically a given with the very cold temperatures aloft and strong deep layer shear.

This is one to prepare for, folks. GA may very well have problems after dark too, I don't see this being an AL/GA border and done type deal. Resiliency of the wedge front to WAA will determine spatial extent.

 

[SilentShadow87]

I'm pretty conservative after a pattern of bust after bust, and like Rolltide said, this could end up trending down like 4/5/17 did, or just not be as bad as models are suggesting right now.

That being said, I've been closely following severe weather since November 2014, and this might be one of the nastiest looking setups for Dixie I've seen yet...I'm genuinely concerned about this one.

 

[MichelleH]

Cullman County Schools will dismiss at 12 noon Monday.

 

[rolltide_130]

I'm pretty conservative after a pattern of bust after bust, and like Rolltide said, this could end up trending down like 4/5/17 did, or just not be as bad as models are suggesting right now.

That being said, I've been closely following severe weather since November 2014, and this might be one of the nastiest looking setups for Dixie I've seen yet...I'm genuinely concerned about this one.

It could trend down, but it won't do so in the manner 4/5/17 did. That one was a high ceiling but extremely uncertain event. The uncertainties that plagued that one aren't here with this one..

 

[Helicity]

Anyone else having issues accessing alabamawx? Saw that Spann posted an update to his blog on the site but I could not reach it, and he's since deleted the twitter post. I know many folks in Alabama receive their weather news/updates online these days, so hopefully any technical issues can be ironed out before tomorrow.

EDIT: Looks like it's back up now.

 

[Richardjacks]

This too has increased.

 

[Kory]

SREF is going bonkers over AL tomorrow. It has increased spatially as well.

 

[Rober't]

Hello all. Just saw on James Spann Facebook he is doing a Q&A on tomorrow's threat at 8pm. Hope he doesn't get any "is this going to be like 4/27/11" questions lol. Probably will though.

 

[HeHateMe]

Hi everyone. I’ve followed this forum for a while but never posted. I live in Cave Spring GA, so obviously 4/27/11 is fresh in my memory. I read that schools in N Central AL are planning on closing at 12 but not here. I have 2 girls, 5 and 2; should I be thinking about pulling them out of school early?

 

[Xenesthis]

People this is not for 4/27/11! I don’t think it’s necessary for you to be pulling your kids out of school. Yes this is a serious event however this is not a generational event. Just stay aware to the warnings

 

[Derek00]

Hi everyone. I’ve followed this forum for a while but never posted. I live in Cave Spring GA, so obviously 4/27/11 is fresh in my memory. I read that schools in N Central AL are planning on closing at 12 but not here. I have 2 girls, 5 and 2; should I be thinking about pulling them out of school early?

Judging from the timing of the event that I've seen, I would think they would be okay. I live in Chattooga County, GA (Just across the Alabama line) and I'm hearing 7-8 PM EST for us. Just my worthless opinion and you should absolutely do what you think is best for your kids, but I think this would take place hours after school is out for our area.

 

[HazardousWx]

The schools in AL have to think about buses that will be on the road here at 3-4:30 or so central time. There is too much uncertainty to risk having the kids out in a severe situation, so they opted to close early and get them home by 1:30 or so...depending on how long their bus route is, 1st or 2nd load, etc.

 

[WesL]

Hi everyone. I’ve followed this forum for a while but never posted. I live in Cave Spring GA, so obviously 4/27/11 is fresh in my memory. I read that schools in N Central AL are planning on closing at 12 but not here. I have 2 girls, 5 and 2; should I be thinking about pulling them out of school early?

As a parent, I totally understand your concern. I would wait until we start seeing the storms develop in Alabama and go from there. Morgan County, AL school system has a great policy that allows a parent to make the call about weather safety without punishment. Wish other systems would go with that type of thinking as well. But that is another topic for another day and thread. Welcome (officially) to TalkWeather by the way. Glad to have you!

 

[GA Stormchaser]

People this is not for 4/27/11! I don’t think it’s necessary for you to be pulling your kids out of school. Yes this is a serious event however this is not a generational event. Just stay aware to the warnings

Statistically, your always going to be more likely to be correct when you say, this is not another 4/27. Those events are rare. However, I lived in Huntsville during the original Super Outbreak in 74, and that was supposed to be a generational outbreak. I then chased on 4/27, so I guess I got 2 generational outbreak experiences. Will there be a 3rd in my lifetime? Who knows. Of course you don't need a generational outbreak for an event to change your life forever....you just have to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. Stay safe.

 

[TileDude]

People this is not for 4/27/11! I don’t think it’s necessary for you to be pulling your kids out of school. Yes this is a serious event however this is not a generational event. Just stay aware to the warnings

Apparently some school officials across north Alabama believe it is serious enough to dismiss early, many have already made announcements.

 

[Bamamuscle]

Apparently some school officials across north Alabama believe it is serious enough to dismiss early, many have already made announcements.

Yeah... Not sure where they got that line of thinking from.. I’m a teacher and some of my kids are on a bus upwards of 90 minutes.. Others don’t leave the school until 4:30 on a regular day.. Huntsville City is releasing at 11:30-12:30 and will cut it close getting buses off the road before this kicks off.


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[HazardousWx]

Apparently some school officials across north Alabama believe it is serious enough to dismiss early, many have already made announcements.

Schools are expected to make these decisions the day before nowadays instead of the day of. Expectations have changed with the younger generations, so they are making decisions based on the best forecast they can rely on - that may or may not verify.

 

[kivey2969]

Reed Timmer and The Weather Channel are here in Athens, AL. They seem to think Limestone Co. will be a hot spot.