Archive March 18-20th, 2018 Severe Weather

[HazardousWx]

Reed Timmer and The Weather Channel are here in Athens, AL. They seem to think Limestone Co. will be a hot spot.

That and it is easy access to 72 for east west and I-65 for north south.

 

[Brandon]

This is shaping up to be a pretty bad looking set-up. I guess I shouldn't have dragged my feet on getting our in-ground garage shelter installed.

 

[WesL]

That and it is easy access to 72 for east west and I-65 for north south.

Athens and Decatur were my two favorite staging locations. It really does make sense.

 

[MattW]

Definitely looking like primarily an early overnight event for Georgia. I'm still thinking about trying to chase after work, originally I was targeting Columbus-Bremen, but now I'm thinking if I want to see anything, I'd have to go north and hope it speeds up a little to avoid chasing after dark.

 

[ARCC]

18z run is bad for Huntsville.. it's really, really bad..

That is a nasty sounding on so many levels it isn't funny.

 

[Equus]

Events where convective initiation is over AL rather than moving in from points west are especially suspenseful. I remember obsessing over any small reflectivity pop-ups last April 5 until the dryline passed.

 

[MichelleH]

Events where convective initiation is over AL rather than moving in from points west are especially suspenseful. I remember obsessing over any small reflectivity pop-ups last April 5 until the dryline passed.

That will be me tomorrow. My son's new jobs orientation time got changed from 8 to 9 and then they said they would decide based on the weather how long they would be there. This momma is going to be a nervous wreck tomorrow.

 

[MichelleH]

Oh boy...Jim Cantore has arrived in Huntsville.

 

[Tennie]

I'm getting the feeling that this event may wind up being on a level at least similar to, say, 11/15/89 or the April 1998 outbreaks (4/8 and 4/16). Perhaps even the 2002 Veterans' Day outbreak (or at least how the AL part of that event went down, anyway).

In any case, here's hoping that no strong tornadoes end up going through populated areas tomorrow (Knock on wood!)!

 

[Richardjacks]

Can anyone show me a hi-res/meso model that doesn't show a severe event tomorrow? Asking for a friend...

 

[Kory]

Events where convective initiation is over AL rather than moving in from points west are especially suspenseful. I remember obsessing over any small reflectivity pop-ups last April 5 until the dryline passed.

Not fully sure that will be the case. Many CAMs have initiation back over NE/E MS.

 

[Equus]

Oh man I hope it's not a November 10 2002 copy, seeing as an EF3 hit literally the exact property we later built our house on, hah. I hope it's a day where no one sees serious damage from an intense tornado.

Yeah... does seem as though initiation point has been pushed west a bit. Would take the waiting and watching factor down just a little and allow for better short term planning here if that's the case.

 

[Xenesthis]

I'm getting the feeling that this event may wind up being on a level at least similar to, say, 11/15/89 or the April 1998 outbreaks (4/8 and 4/16). Perhaps even the 2002 Veterans' Day outbreak (or at least how the AL part of that event went down, anyway).

In any case, here's hoping that no strong tornadoes end up going through populated areas tomorrow (Knock on wood!)!

This is a bit premature don’t you think? I am not sure this will rival these events

 

[Bamamuscle]

Can anyone show me a hi-res/meso model that doesn't show a severe event tomorrow? Asking for a friend...

Since the models are lining up in agreement do you think there’s an upgrade of the SPC outlook?


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[Richardjacks]

Not fully sure that will be the case. Many CAMs have initiation back over NE/E MS.

yes, that is one of the changes we may see in the next day 1 outlook
For example- with a sounding near those storms in east Miss.
Obviously, the setup is not as potent as a little further east...but those storms may rotate

 

[KoD]

Seeing a lot of convection in Texas not previously forecasted. I don't think it'll translate to much down the road but worth mentioning.

 

[Xenesthis]

Does anyone else think these soundings are overdoing it a bit?

 

[Kory]

Seeing a lot of convection in Texas not previously forecasted. I don't think it'll translate to much down the road but worth mentioning.

Yeah, HRRR and RAP have picked up on this. RAP is showing more convection across North AL/GA tomorrow and HRRR isn't as robust with the northern progression of instability as I would've anticipated. Not sure what to make of that but with the EML moving in, one would think most of the convection would be scattered and elevated.

 

[rolltide_130]

I'm not particularly concerned. It's not riding the coast and it's not very sizable.

 

[warneagle]

Couple of tornado warned supercells back along the TX/LA border right now.