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June 21st 2023 Matador TX Tornado Discussion

Sawmaster

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The EF scale is flawed in the sense that, when surveying following DI limitations, construction quality can prevent a more appropriate rating regardless of context. On the other hand, for more absurd cases like Cisco 2015 and Matador, the scale isn't to blame.
But the scale is blame in that it doesn't require adequate consideration and mandatory use of contextuals. It is, after all, a tool used to assess damage levels and contextuals, which even though inexact, can be far more important than noting that plates weren't bolted or someone forgot a nail somewhere. You have to require the use of intelligence and common sense or it usually doesn't happen.
 

Sawmaster

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EXP bound DOD 10 for 1-2 FR on the scale should be 201 mph, zero doubt. The choice to set that at 200 mph is significant because it changes the mindset from "ok, let's prove this was an EF5" from the surrounding scene to "ok, let's prove this was anything but an EF5" from the surrounding scene (Vilonia being the best example of this).
Highlighting by me. That quite well shows that whoever is doing the surveying shouldn't be. This is not a question of how strictly scales and 'rules' are adhered to, but a question of "How fast were the winds here as best we can tell, even if that's inexact"

You always find what you're lookling for because of confirmation bias, so simply seek the truth.
 

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Alberta received an EF4, Matador, we know, different countries yes, rating tornadoes handily, no, this needs to be fixed asap, I don’t get why no other NWS’s are speaking upon this and comparing these tornadoes to see what deserves EF4 or EF3, I mean what’s the deal? Why don’t the other NWS’s discuss how inaccurate the ratings are across the whole country??
 
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Alberta received an EF4, Matador, we know, different countries yes, rating tornadoes handily, no, this needs to be fixed asap, I don’t get why no other NWS’s are speaking upon this and comparing these tornadoes to see what deserves EF4 or EF3, I mean what’s the deal? Why don’t the other NWS’s discuss how inaccurate the ratings are across the whole country??
The Matador tornado was significantly stronger than the Alberta tornado.
 

Sawmaster

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Alberta received an EF4, Matador, we know, different countries yes, rating tornadoes handily, no, this needs to be fixed asap, I don’t get why no other NWS’s are speaking upon this and comparing these tornadoes to see what deserves EF4 or EF3, I mean what’s the deal? Why don’t the other NWS’s discuss how inaccurate the ratings are across the whole country??
The following is just my thoughts, but having seen enough of life I'd make a large wager they're right.

There's no public 'pressure' applied in-house at the NWS because either someone in management has made it known that they don't want it t happen, or the people themselves have adopted the attitude; perhaps both. The reason? They don't want to "look bad" which would hurt their agency, their professional status, and some personal prestiege. Like political parties and law enforcement this has reached such a level that the reasoning behind it has been allowed to become more important than solving any problems the attitude causes, or solving any extant problems which would have the same effect of made public.

In other words they'd rather sweep the dirt under the rug and ignore the ever-growing lump that to do what's right. I don't think there's any malice behind the problem, but rather an attempt to save face is being chosen instead of doing the harder work and correcting the problem so that there will no longer be a need to 'save face'. It's a systemic problem so the solution must also be systemic as well.
 
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No way Matador was not at least as strong as Didsbury or Keota (the latter of which left some pretty violent contextual indicators including at least one hurled/very badly mangled vehicle, but not on the same level as Matador).
If was at least as strong the Rolling Fork, MS tornado from this year and possibly even stronger. I would rate it at least a 195 or 200 mph EF4. EF5 is also definitely on the table. This attitude from NWS offices that well-built homes even with extreme context nearby cannot be rated EF5 or mediocre built homes with extreme contextual damage can only be rated high-end EF3 needs to stop.
 
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Brice

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If was at least as strong the Rolling Fork, MS tornado from this year and possibly even stronger. I would rate it at least a 195 or 200 mph EF4. EF5 is also definitely on the table. This attitude from NWS offices that well-built homes even with extreme context nearby cannot be rated EF5 or mediocre built homes with extreme contextual damage can only be rated high-end EF3 needs to stop.
Someone probably said something similar to this. Rating tornadoes like this give the ratings a bad name for theirselves. Someone curious about tornadoes and storms, will look at these tornadoes and think that’s how they should be rated. Therefore, it will cause a domino effect and the accuracy of the ratings will get worse and worse.
 
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Someone probably said something similar to this. Rating tornadoes like this give the ratings a bad name for theirselves. Someone curious about tornadoes and storms, will look at these tornadoes and think that’s how they should be rated. Therefore, it will cause a domino effect and the accuracy of the ratings will get worse and worse.
I have been studying tornado damage for 20+ years and I think I know what violent contextual tornado damage looks like. Even you young newbies seem to know quite well what violent contextual damage looks like and even as much as I do. Does it really take a rocket scientist to be able to rate violent contextual tornado damage?
 
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Someone probably said something similar to this. Rating tornadoes like this give the ratings a bad name for theirselves. Someone curious about tornadoes and storms, will look at these tornadoes and think that’s how they should be rated. Therefore, it will cause a domino effect and the accuracy of the ratings will get worse and worse.
Some people on Twitter were calling the damage from the Matador tornado as low as high-end EF2 or possibly low-end EF3. I was just totally dumbfounded. The same can also be said for the recent Didsbury, Alberta tornado that of course was rated EF4 and IMO was a decent rating.
 
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Thank you Tim Marshall by leading us on how you said the Matador tornado did some of the most impressive vehicle damage he has ever seen. Then he is also impressed by mesquite trees being completely debarked and how tough them type of trees are. I know someone who emailed Tim Marshall a few days ago in regards to the Matador tornado and hasn't heard anything back.
 
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TH2002

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This is the same person who made a video defending Vilonia's EF4 rating, with his stance basically being 'well, if it had hit a hospital or some other large institutional building it may have been an EF5, but the worst damage surveyed was EF4, case closed.' Enough said...

His problem like so many others is that his stance on tornado damage is based purely on engineering, and also his belief that you must "stay within the confines of the scale" in the name of consistency. Okay, then how did NWS Jackson taking context heavily into account during the Rolling Fork survey end up working out so well? Why did NWS Huntsville give vehicles DI's in the Hackleburg and Rainsville tornado surveys? Why are some past F5 tornadoes rated solely based on vehicle damage? And most of all, if staying within the confines of the scale is really working, then why are tornado ratings so damn inconsistent between WFO and WFO?

I can quote a previous post from an NWS Chicago met relayed to us by andyhb:
Having some reference to engineering standards is all well and good, but an impossible standard to reach EF-5 has been set based off building codes that don't exist in much of the country.

We've become fixated on finding everything a tornado didn't do as opposed to judging what a tornado did do with respect to totality of damage.
 

Tanner

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This is the same person who made a video defending Vilonia's EF4 rating, with his stance basically being 'well, if it had hit a hospital or some other large institutional building it may have been an EF5, but the worst damage surveyed was EF4, case closed.' Enough said...

His problem like so many others is that his stance on tornado damage is based purely on engineering, and also his belief that you must "stay within the confines of the scale" in the name of consistency. Okay, then how did NWS Jackson taking context heavily into account during the Rolling Fork survey end up working out so well? Why did NWS Huntsville give vehicles DI's in the Hackleburg and Rainsville tornado surveys? Why are some past F5 tornadoes rated solely based on vehicle damage? And most of all, if staying within the confines of the scale is really working, then why are tornado ratings so damn inconsistent between WFO and WFO?

I can quote a previous post from an NWS Chicago met relayed to us by andyhb:
I appreciate and respect Ethan due to the fact that the same weather event got is into the passion to study it in the first place, but I didn't feel informed at all watching the Matador video. If anything, it felt kind of like a slap in the face, because the common message that he sent was "it's within the confines of the scale." I do appreciate his mention of the new ef-scale updates though. As an engineer you have to be able to raise questions about "what kind of velocity would inflict *that* damage," but I feel like most engineers ignore that when surveying and let their trained eye focus on only the system that's presented in front of them, which explains the inconsistencies we've seen.
 

TH2002

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I appreciate and respect Ethan due to the fact that the same weather event got is into the passion to study it in the first place, but I didn't feel informed at all watching the Matador video. If anything, it felt kind of like a slap in the face, because the common message that he sent was "it's within the confines of the scale." I do appreciate his mention of the new ef-scale updates though. As an engineer you have to be able to raise questions about "what kind of velocity would inflict *that* damage," but I feel like most engineers ignore that when surveying and let their trained eye focus on only the system that's presented in front of them, which explains the inconsistencies we've seen.
You can tell he's very passionate about what he does, which is definitely a trait that's worthy of respect, no doubt.

But at the same time, I think it's well too clear by this point that analyzing tornado damage taking only engineering into consideration, and no meteorology or other science, is a failed approach that has done nothing but spew out inaccurate ratings.
 
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He seems like a decent person but he either fails to realize or is unaware that other offices have used non Di'S to rate tornadoes as violent. Another thing I don't agree with is he said that rating the tornadoes like the Matador tornado as violent would cause inconsistencies between NWS orifices. Consistently doesn't seem to exist between each NWS office. Like if the Matador tornado had happened in another MWS jurisdiction it likely may have been rated decently. There have also been some tornadoes that were overrated like Rozel 2013, iowa 2013, and Newnan 2021 Also the mesquite trees being completely debarked should merit at least an EF4 rating by itself.
 

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This is the same person who made a video defending Vilonia's EF4 rating, with his stance basically being 'well, if it had hit a hospital or some other large institutional building it may have been an EF5, but the worst damage surveyed was EF4, case closed.' Enough said...

His problem like so many others is that his stance on tornado damage is based purely on engineering, and also his belief that you must "stay within the confines of the scale" in the name of consistency. Okay, then how did NWS Jackson taking context heavily into account during the Rolling Fork survey end up working out so well? Why did NWS Huntsville give vehicles DI's in the Hackleburg and Rainsville tornado surveys? Why are some past F5 tornadoes rated solely based on vehicle damage? And most of all, if staying within the confines of the scale is really working, then why are tornado ratings so damn inconsistent between WFO and WFO?

I can quote a previous post from an NWS Chicago met relayed to us by andyhb:
Agreed. I think one thing in the video which raised questions again (and one reason I sent it, aside from being generally interesting to see another perspective) was the way (without trying to blame this person in particular since they put lots of time and effort into those videos) that the engineering community in general seems to try and find almost *every* single reason why X Structure failed and cant be rated at the EXP windspeed: "It was old, the connections were not proper, anchor bolts weren't placed at regular intervals, foundation CMU" etc etc.

By doing this one can easily become blind to the blaringly obvious clues on the tornado's intensity. Yes contextual damage can be hard to class into DIs and exact windspeeds, but when has a tornado with extreme debarking, scouring and vehicle damage ever been less than violent? And yes I understand its hard to verify that, but when your most violent tornadoes rated (E)F5 with observed winds over 200mph are doing contextual damage in the same vein... something just doesn't add up rating wise and I wish the heavily engineering focused surveyors would think about that. The inconsistency from that is more significant than the inconsistency mentioned in the video.

The problem with ratings comes from many different sources in my opinion; surveyors heavily focused on engineering, problems with the existing scale, some sort of unusual 'fear' (best way I can think to describe it) of not being conservative and as much as I don't like to admit it, lazy survey teams (though I can think of few examples of genuine laziness there). I hope at least some of these issues are sorted in the near future.
 
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Agreed. I think one thing in the video which raised questions again (and one reason I sent it, aside from being generally interesting to see another perspective) was the way (without trying to blame this person in particular since they put lots of time and effort into those videos) that the engineering community in general seems to try and find almost *every* single reason why X Structure failed and cant be rated at the EXP windspeed: "It was old, the connections were not proper, anchor bolts weren't placed at regular intervals, foundation CMU" etc etc.

By doing this one can easily become blind to the blaringly obvious clues on the tornado's intensity. Yes contextual damage can be hard to class into DIs and exact windspeeds, but when has a tornado with extreme debarking, scouring and vehicle damage ever been less than violent? And yes I understand its hard to verify that, but when your most violent tornadoes rated (E)F5 with observed winds over 200mph are doing contextual damage in the same vein... something just doesn't add up rating wise and I wish the heavily engineering focused surveyors would think about that. The inconsistency from that is more significant than the inconsistency mentioned in the video.

The problem with ratings comes from many different sources in my opinion; surveyors heavily focused on engineering, problems with the existing scale, some sort of unusual 'fear' (best way I can think to describe it) of not being conservative and as much as I don't like to admit it, lazy survey teams (though I can think of few examples of genuine laziness there). I hope at least some of these issues are sorted in the near future.
Didn't NWS Jackson, MS rate ground scouring as an EF4 with an unassigned windspeed for the recent Rolling Fork EF4 tornado?
 
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