Severe WX December 29 & 30, 2021 Severe Threat

[Richardjacks]

Bmx special balloon release coming this
Afternoon

 

[Mike S]

Bmx special balloon release coming this
Afternoon

I really hate the UAH SWIRLL team is on Christmas break, or at least I assume they are. Their releases help out a lot in this area.

 

[Richardjacks]

In Bham it looks like we are capped based on the clouds,

 

[Justin Hindman Hindy]

In Bham it looks like we are capped based on the clouds,

Cap should hold I would think until later this evening. If it were to break, wouldn’t be good. 76 in Gardendale. Dew point is messed up and saying 13 .

 

[Richardjacks]

Cap should hold I would think until later this evening. If it were to break, wouldn’t be good. 76 in Gardendale. Dew point is messed up and saying 13 .

Right, but more importantly I think this reduces the chance of messy junk convection

 

[Jetstream]

SPC current thoughts

 

[Richardjacks]

The surface airmass ahead of that is just crazy.

 

[Justin Hindman Hindy]

Right, but more importantly I think this reduces the chance of messy junk convection

The hrrr shows messy storms in the enhanced region with renegades and broken line down in the ham. I really think Birmingham has as good as shot as north ms and Alabama. Your thoughts?

 

[Mike S]

SPC latest discussion

Ongoing forecast remains on track with only minor changes. Intense
thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon over
southern AR as a combination of daytime heating, approaching large
scale ascent, and strengthening wind fields overspread the region.
This cluster of storms will organize and track across the ENH risk
corridor through the afternoon and evening hours. A few supercells
are possible, as well as an increasing risk of a larger-scale bowing
structures as storms move into middle TN, northeast MS, northern AL,
and eventually into northwest GA. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and
hail will all be possible with these storms. Have also added a
small corridor of 10% significant tornado probabilities over parts
of MS/AL where CAM guidance and forecast shear profiles appear most
favorable. Please refer to MCD #2070 for further short-term
details.

Farther south, more isolated thunderstorm development is expected
later this afternoon and evening across central MS/AL. This area
will have favorable vertical shear profiles and CAPE for discrete
supercells and some risk of tornadoes. However, large-scale forcing
is weaker so uncertainty is lower regarding coverage and intensity
of storms.

Editing to add tweet with map

 

[Austin Dawg]

I can't get the gif I made to upload but the NAM 3km Sig Tor really paints a concerning picture for the 278/I-72 corridor all the way into the west AL area

 

[Richardjacks]

The hrrr shows messy storms in the enhanced region with renegades and broken line down in the ham. I really think Birmingham has as good as shot as north ms and Alabama. Your thoughts?

I think the hrrr is too far south with the cells. Hwy 278 corridor is where I think the worst will be, could extend a little further south.

 

[Mike S]

Sun just broke through in Huntsville

 

[Austin Dawg]

I think the hrrr is too far south with the cells. Hwy 278 corridor is where I think the worst will be, could extend a little further south.

What is your estimate for the prime time window of the 278 corridor?

 

[MichelleH]

I think the hrrr is too far south with the cells. Hwy 278 corridor is where I think the worst will be, could extend a little further south.

I live about 10-15 minutes south of Hwy. 278. Bleh.

 

[bwalk]

First severe warning of the afternoon - SW of Monticello, Ark. Intensification over the past few scans.

 

[atrainguy]

 

[Clancy]

MD out regarding N AL.

 

[Weatherphreak]

Blue sky is finally showing in Huntsville. I guess that boundary is pushing through and clearing us out for the main show.

 

[Tennie]

The first TOR of the day is NE of Monticello, AR:

767
WFUS54 KLZK 292046
TORLZK
ARC001-041-043-079-292130-
/O.NEW.KLZK.TO.W.0054.211229T2046Z-211229T2130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
246 PM CST Wed Dec 29 2021

The National Weather Service in Little Rock has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northern Desha County in southeastern Arkansas...
Northeastern Drew County in southeastern Arkansas...
Southeastern Lincoln County in southeastern Arkansas...
Southeastern Arkansas County in southeastern Arkansas...

* Until 330 PM CST.

* At 245 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 7 miles southwest of Mills, or 10 miles west of Dumas,
moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Dumas... Mitchellville...
Watson... Winchester...
Yancopin... Omega...
Mills... Merrisach Lake...
Trusten Holder WMA... Arkansas Post...
Garrett Bridge... Pendleton...
Gourd... Florence...
Tyro... Rose Hill...
Reedville... Morgan Point Recreation Area...
Yukon... Pickens in Desha County...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Little Rock.

&&

LAT...LON 3402 9099 3398 9096 3396 9097 3397 9100
3400 9102 3397 9109 3395 9108 3393 9101
3389 9104 3371 9170 3388 9178 3415 9109
3414 9108 3412 9112 3412 9099 3402 9094
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 248DEG 43KT 3383 9165

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

44

 

[atrainguy]

Radar pic in this tweet of the rotation.