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KevinH
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Ma’am…. You live in CULLMAN, AL lolAngry face isn't for you, but I don't need that happening next week. If it can just wait until next Friday night, that would be fine!
Don’t jinx yourself please
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Ma’am…. You live in CULLMAN, AL lolAngry face isn't for you, but I don't need that happening next week. If it can just wait until next Friday night, that would be fine!
Ma’am…. You live in CULLMAN, AL lol
Don’t jinx yourself please
Ok that’s a little different. Ugh! I hope everyone stays safe!!!!But next week I will be in Huntsville, my dog will be at the boarder and my son will be home by himself. He's a grown man (and a giant one) and isn't scared of anything EXCEPT tornadoes. At least we have a basement. It's our dog I'm worried about. That and trying to talk myself out of trying to see it if Huntsville goes under a warning.
...Day 5/Sat - Southern Plains to the Ozarks vicinity...
Low-amplitude west/southwest mid/upper flow is forecast across the
southern Plains to the Mid-South vicinity for much of the diurnal
period on Saturday. By 00z, forecast guidance suggests a shortwave
trough will eject from the southern Rockies into the southern
Plains, and eventually impinging on the Ozarks/Mid-South area by
Sunday morning. A very moist and unstable airmass is forecast over
the southern Plains vicinity ahead of this feature as a surface warm
front lifts northward through the day. Increasing ascent may not
arrive until after 00-03z, limiting convective initiation until the
nighttime hours. If storms can develop during the day across
portions of OK/TX, all hazards severe potential will exist.
Otherwise, thunderstorm potential may be more likely during the
evening/overnight from north TX into southeast OK and AR as
large-scale ascent increases and a 65-75 kt 500 mb jet overspreads
the region. The north and west bounds of severe potential are a bit
uncertain, so this area may shift in subsequent outlooks.
...Day 6/Sun - Ozarks to the Lower OH and TN Valleys...
An upper shortwave trough will progress across the region on Sunday.
Forecast guidance depicts a 50-60 kt southwesterly 700 mb jet
overspreading the region during the day. Meanwhile, a surface low
will intensify over MO/IL, shifting northeast along the OH River
through the period. A very moist and unstable airmass is depicted
ahead of the low and attendant south/southeastward-progressing cold
front. Intense severe thunderstorms will likely accompany this
system. Consistency among deterministic guidance, favorable synoptic
pattern, as well as CSU/NSSL ML output, support introduction of 15
percent probabilities for Sunday.
Fred,Watch the weekend system carefully. I'm not sure how far south the Sunday threat will extend, whether it's mainly Tennessee and north, or it comes down into north MS/AL like the SPC outlook suggests (but that's the direction I'm leaning a little at the moment), but it looks potentially significant. Saturday late afternoon through overnight looks mean across central/east Oklahoma and across Arkansas into southern Missouri.
Fred,
Is this looking like a severe thunderstorm threat; or possibly tornadoes on Sunday?
I know we are still several days out; but will be watching with interest as our church picnic (Hazel Green area of Madison County) is that Sunday afternoon; and we will have 600-800 people out at a local park.
Too soon to say (and too soon to use tornado wording on air and things like that), but early indications on the large-scale would suggest it may be a supercellular type threat.Fred,
Is this looking like a severe thunderstorm threat; or possibly tornadoes on Sunday?
I know we are still several days out; but will be watching with interest as our church picnic (Hazel Green area of Madison County) is that Sunday afternoon; and we will have 600-800 people out at a local park.
Thanks FredToo soon to say (and too soon to use tornado wording on air and things like that), but early indications on the large-scale would suggest it may be a supercellular type threat.
Spc just already highlighted large 30 percent over parts midsouth lower Ohio valley regions Sunday ….Both Saturday in the Southern Plains and Sunday in the Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley (5/25-26) are looking volatile on the 00z model suite, particularly the Euro and GFS.
Still 4 days out. But Sunday could be shaping up to be a pretty good chase day daily close by…. Get one more chance before we have to wait on fall severe chances for mid south …
Saturday/Sunday is definitely looking like a pretty solid event right now.
On today's episode of "international tornadoes I discovered completely by chance", there was a significant tornado in Bassin Bleu, Haiti yesterday.