Severe Weather 2024

[KevinH]

Angry face isn't for you, but I don't need that happening next week. If it can just wait until next Friday night, that would be fine!

Ma’am…. You live in CULLMAN, AL lol

Don’t jinx yourself please

 

[MichelleH]

Ma’am…. You live in CULLMAN, AL lol

Don’t jinx yourself please

But next week I will be in Huntsville, my dog will be at the boarder and my son will be home by himself. He's a grown man (and a giant one) and isn't scared of anything EXCEPT tornadoes. At least we have a basement. It's our dog I'm worried about. That and trying to talk myself out of trying to see it if Huntsville goes under a warning.

 

[MichelleH]

By the way, Cullman is a ticking time bomb. I know all the historical paths through the city and they just keep building up the south end of town. It may not happen until I'm gone from this world, but I can 99% guarantee that the south end with all those businesses and restaurants will take a direct hit someday. April 3, 1974; January 19, 1988; April, 27, 2011...all parallel to each other. But no one wants to hear it.

 

[KevinH]

But next week I will be in Huntsville, my dog will be at the boarder and my son will be home by himself. He's a grown man (and a giant one) and isn't scared of anything EXCEPT tornadoes. At least we have a basement. It's our dog I'm worried about. That and trying to talk myself out of trying to see it if Huntsville goes under a warning.

Ok that’s a little different. Ugh! I hope everyone stays safe!!!!

 

[James S]

D5 looking like something to keep an eye on up here in the Midwest

 

[JPWX]

Severe weather/tornado season lasts into early June.

 

[Clancy]

As @treypops mentioned in another thread, potential for a multi-day severe weather episode is evident in the D5-6 range.

...Day 5/Sat - Southern Plains to the Ozarks vicinity...

Low-amplitude west/southwest mid/upper flow is forecast across the
southern Plains to the Mid-South vicinity for much of the diurnal
period on Saturday. By 00z, forecast guidance suggests a shortwave
trough will eject from the southern Rockies into the southern
Plains, and eventually impinging on the Ozarks/Mid-South area by
Sunday morning. A very moist and unstable airmass is forecast over
the southern Plains vicinity ahead of this feature as a surface warm
front lifts northward through the day. Increasing ascent may not
arrive until after 00-03z, limiting convective initiation until the
nighttime hours. If storms can develop during the day across
portions of OK/TX, all hazards severe potential will exist.
Otherwise, thunderstorm potential may be more likely during the
evening/overnight from north TX into southeast OK and AR as
large-scale ascent increases and a 65-75 kt 500 mb jet overspreads
the region. The north and west bounds of severe potential are a bit
uncertain, so this area may shift in subsequent outlooks.

...Day 6/Sun - Ozarks to the Lower OH and TN Valleys...

An upper shortwave trough will progress across the region on Sunday.
Forecast guidance depicts a 50-60 kt southwesterly 700 mb jet
overspreading the region during the day. Meanwhile, a surface low
will intensify over MO/IL, shifting northeast along the OH River
through the period. A very moist and unstable airmass is depicted
ahead of the low and attendant south/southeastward-progressing cold
front. Intense severe thunderstorms will likely accompany this
system. Consistency among deterministic guidance, favorable synoptic
pattern, as well as CSU/NSSL ML output, support introduction of 15
percent probabilities for Sunday.

 

[Fred Gossage]

Watch the weekend system carefully. I'm not sure how far south the Sunday threat will extend, whether it's mainly Tennessee and north, or it comes down into north MS/AL like the SPC outlook suggests (but that's the direction I'm leaning a little at the moment), but it looks potentially significant. Saturday late afternoon through overnight looks mean across central/east Oklahoma and across Arkansas into southern Missouri.

 

[mdberry]

Watch the weekend system carefully. I'm not sure how far south the Sunday threat will extend, whether it's mainly Tennessee and north, or it comes down into north MS/AL like the SPC outlook suggests (but that's the direction I'm leaning a little at the moment), but it looks potentially significant. Saturday late afternoon through overnight looks mean across central/east Oklahoma and across Arkansas into southern Missouri.

Fred,

Is this looking like a severe thunderstorm threat; or possibly tornadoes on Sunday?

I know we are still several days out; but will be watching with interest as our church picnic (Hazel Green area of Madison County) is that Sunday afternoon; and we will have 600-800 people out at a local park.

 

[MichelleH]

Fred,

Is this looking like a severe thunderstorm threat; or possibly tornadoes on Sunday?

I know we are still several days out; but will be watching with interest as our church picnic (Hazel Green area of Madison County) is that Sunday afternoon; and we will have 600-800 people out at a local park.

I'm going to assume a tornado threat. Especially how this year has been so far.

 

[Fred Gossage]

Fred,

Is this looking like a severe thunderstorm threat; or possibly tornadoes on Sunday?

I know we are still several days out; but will be watching with interest as our church picnic (Hazel Green area of Madison County) is that Sunday afternoon; and we will have 600-800 people out at a local park.

Too soon to say (and too soon to use tornado wording on air and things like that), but early indications on the large-scale would suggest it may be a supercellular type threat.

 

[mdberry]

Too soon to say (and too soon to use tornado wording on air and things like that), but early indications on the large-scale would suggest it may be a supercellular type threat.

Thanks Fred

 

[andyhb]

Both Saturday in the Southern Plains and Sunday in the Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley (5/25-26) are looking volatile on the 00z model suite, particularly the Euro and GFS.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Both Saturday in the Southern Plains and Sunday in the Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley (5/25-26) are looking volatile on the 00z model suite, particularly the Euro and GFS.

Spc just already highlighted large 30 percent over parts midsouth lower Ohio valley regions Sunday ….

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Still 4 days out. But Sunday could be shaping up to be a pretty good chase day daily close by…. Get one more chance before we have to wait on fall severe chances for mid south …

 

[Fred Gossage]

Still 4 days out. But Sunday could be shaping up to be a pretty good chase day daily close by…. Get one more chance before we have to wait on fall severe chances for mid south …

Severe Weather Threat 5/25-5/26, 2024

00z Suite paints a volatile solution for both of these days.

talkweather.com

Matt P. started an event-specific thread for this earlier this morning, before your 4:12am post earlier, actually.

 

[SilentShadow87]

Saturday/Sunday is definitely looking like a pretty solid event right now.

 

[MichelleH]

Saturday/Sunday is definitely looking like a pretty solid event right now.

Severe Weather Threat 5/25-5/26, 2024

00z Suite paints a volatile solution for both of these days.

talkweather.com

 

[TH2002]

On today's episode of "international tornadoes I discovered completely by chance", there was a significant tornado in Bassin Bleu, Haiti yesterday.

 

[Clancy]

On today's episode of "international tornadoes I discovered completely by chance", there was a significant tornado in Bassin Bleu, Haiti yesterday.

Wow at that last video, that's some violent motion. It cleanly uproots a tree and throws it to the sky at about 22 seconds.