Winter Weather 2023-2024

[JPWX]

Had this old guy at church this morning tell my grandma that there's gonna be a early Spring this year because he saw mocking birds mating. This same gentleman said that we wouldn't have any rain last Fall.

Basically it's this:

 

[JBishopwx]

Had this old guy at church this morning tell my grandma that there's gonna be a early Spring this year because he saw mocking birds mating. This same gentleman said that we wouldn't have any rain last Fall.

Basically it's this:

"But but it nail the last event so it HAS to be right the next go around."

 

[wx_guy]

The 19z National Blend of Models, which is probably the "hardest" model ensemble to convince, is starting to show some snowfall in the extreme Deep South as well, but it is a dusting basically throughout mostly Georgia. The NBM is probably the best overall forecasting tool at this range, though, because it factors in the American, Canadian, and European ensembles and also factors in climatology and statistical bias corrections. So I'm going to be looking VERY closely over the next few days to see if the NBM picks up on a more widespread Deep South snow event. Even this event looks pretty substantial, covering parts of a half dozen states -- but of course, we'd like to see more widespread coverage and more than just a dusting!

It is interesting to note that the Euro, Canadian, and American ensembles ALL have at least *some* snow in AL/GA during this timeframe...so it definitely bears watching.

(I'm not expecting anything at all in Tallahassee, but boy would it be a nice novelty! IIRC, Tallahassee hasn't had "substantial" (lol) snow since 2010.)

 

[UncleJuJu98]

The 19z National Blend of Models, which is probably the "hardest" model ensemble to convince, is starting to show some snowfall in the extreme Deep South as well, but it is a dusting basically throughout mostly Georgia. The NBM is probably the best overall forecasting tool at this range, though, because it factors in the American, Canadian, and European ensembles and also factors in climatology and statistical bias corrections. So I'm going to be looking VERY closely over the next few days to see if the NBM picks up on a more widespread Deep South snow event. Even this event looks pretty substantial, covering parts of a half dozen states -- but of course, we'd like to see more widespread coverage and more than just a dusting!

It is interesting to note that the Euro, Canadian, and American ensembles ALL have at least *some* snow in AL/GA during this timeframe...so it definitely bears watching.

(I'm not expecting anything at all in Tallahassee, but boy would it be a nice novelty! IIRC, Tallahassee hasn't had "substantial" (lol) snow since 2010.)

View attachment 23683

I just want a beefy snow like 2015 and for it to be on the weekend. That would be heaven on earth! Let's bring those snow totals higher lol!

 

[wx_guy]

The 18z GEFS. Of course, at this point, the specific locations are entire guesses by the model, but the pattern continues to look like snow somewhere....so consistency is happening so far.

 

[locomusic01]

Had this old guy at church this morning tell my grandma that there's gonna be a early Spring this year because he saw mocking birds mating. This same gentleman said that we wouldn't have any rain last Fall.

Basically it's this:

My grandpa used to have a whole bunch of weird animal-related things like this. I don't remember much now, but he seemed totally serious about it, which made it even funnier to me as a kid. I vaguely recall one time he predicted we were going to have a really hot summer because of something to do with the barn cats that were always running around his farm.

Apparently we're going about forecasting all wrong.

 

[JPWX]

My grandpa used to have a whole bunch of weird animal-related things like this. I don't remember much now, but he seemed totally serious about it, which made it even funnier to me as a kid. I vaguely recall one time he predicted we were going to have a really hot summer because of something to do with the barn cats that were always running around his farm.

Apparently we're going about forecasting all wrong.

Yeah. Throw out the models and everything. We just need to watch what the animals do. LOL!

 

[wx_guy]

A much less snow-tastic look today by the models! Not looking good for snow lovers haha

 

[MichelleH]

My great-grandmother used to go outside for a few minutes first thing every morning. She then would say what the weather would do that day - storms and all. She was right about 99% of the time.

 

[JPWX]

A much less snow-tastic look today by the models! Not looking good for snow lovers haha

Models be models. If the overall pattern favors more cold and snow, then it'll happen regardless of what models say or don't. Just like the ridge over troubled waters pattern for hurricanes. You build the ridge then watch below. Right now, forecast modeling world is in chaos. Which is why you focus on the overall pattern and ask yourself does this pattern favor cold/more snowy weather going forward. In my eyes, it does. That's what I do when I look at forecast models. I ask myself does this make sense with the overall pattern.

 

[Havaheart66]

I've always referred to stories such as that as folklore or old wives tales. Some were dead on & some dead off. One I've always heard but never witnessed was if a hornet builds low to the ground it's supposed to indicate a mild dry winter. If they build high it's supposed to indicate a measurable snow fall. Two Sundays ago at a church we were visiting I saw the largest hornet's nest I've ever seen in my life and higher than any I've ever seen. So I'm going to sit back and see if hornet's can predict snowfall. I will get a picture and share if I can get someone to take one for me as I didn't have a chance before

 

[Jacob]

It's been interesting living in a valley here in northern Utah and seeing how difficult it is to forecast snow levels. Dynamic cooling can take hold fast out here. Today's forecast was rain and a high in the low 40s. It was 39.4° when the rain moved in at 9:40, by 9:50 it was 35° and snowing, and it's currently 32.9° and snowing. Heavy dusting on the grass and roofs so far.

On the opposite end of that, the Salt Lake Valley had a winter storm warning a couple weeks ago, and just a bit more WAA than predicted caused a 8-12" forecast to end up with almost nothing in most places. It started as snow, changed to rain, then some light snow on the backside. I'm further north and managed 6" before it turned to rain, but it switched back to snow sooner to me and I probably ended up around 6" for it. Drove into work the next day to wet grass closer to SLC.

 

[Jacob]

It's been interesting living in a valley here in northern Utah and seeing how difficult it is to forecast snow levels. Dynamic cooling can take hold fast out here. Today's forecast was rain and a high in the low 40s. It was 39.4° when the rain moved in at 9:40, by 9:50 it was 35° and snowing, and it's currently 32.9° and snowing. Heavy dusting on the grass and roofs so far.

On the opposite end of that, the Salt Lake Valley had a winter storm warning a couple weeks ago, and just a bit more WAA than predicted caused a 8-12" forecast to end up with almost nothing in most places. It started as snow, changed to rain, then some light snow on the backside. I'm further north and managed 6" before it turned to rain, but it switched back to snow sooner to me and I probably ended up around 6" for it. Drove into work the next day to wet grass closer to SLC.

And now 3.5 hours later, it's still 33.3° and snowing steadily. Temp hasn't budged all day. Probably 1-2" on certain elevated surfaces/grassy areas.

 

[Tomcats Forever!]

Models for Monday night show us getting anything from a dusting to a foot

 

[Jacob]

Had the thrill of driving home this morning with a decent stretch of it in near white-out conditions. Had an intense band come through right as I was heading home with about 2" per hour rates. Not something I recommend.

 

[Jacob]

It had stopped snowing entirely by the time I got home, the sun was up, and the trees were beautiful.