Svr Wx threat April 1-April 2 2024

[buckeye05]

May be a subtle TDS north of Rockford

 

[Clancy]

This big ol' mishmash of storms could cause us some trouble in the next hour. They're kind of colliding with each other, in a fashion similar to what happened to the cell that eventually dropped that Conyers tornado.

 

[OhOkayThen]

I still don’t see this as a bust, like I said earlier moderate risk doesn’t mean a barrage of violent tornadoes.
The NWS never had strong words for today, as the worst messaging in the watches were “a couple strong tornadoes possible”.
Which did occur in the pds warnings, of course we won’t know the full extent of damage until tomorrow.
I’m just getting the popcorn ready for the inevitable wxtwitter sh&t storm.
Although the state of emergency was a bit head scratching, but I digress.

I mean, it is a "bust". Things never materialized as expected. In the final updated MDT zone there looks to be 1 tornado report (spread across a couple of counties). Thats definitely a bust for a tornado driven MDT risk. But "bust" doesn't mean NWS or SPC got it wrong. We all saw the same metrics. The reality is sometimes even setups that look great have fail modes. I tried to explain such to a friend today and realized it's hard to explain other than that it's just how weather works. It's an imperfect science with an insane amount of variables; especially when trying to project a potential tornado outbreak. I think it's okay to call incidents like this a bust; doesn't necessarily mean something negative or that people messed up. And on the state of emergency, Beshear throws them out like candy in weather scenerios. I believe we were under multiple this past winter.

 

[Clancy]

Sounds like there was some pretty significant damage in parts of Conyers.

 

[Clancy]

New Tornado Watch.

 

[UK_EF4]

In KY, IN and OH, we really dodged a bullet. Unfortunately it looks like there was some damage, but it could have been a lot worse.

What I find interesting is that the storm mode and evolution were literally as forecast - if anything even better with a good 6 or 7 discrete storms. Yet storms really struggled to produce tornadoes. Clearly, there was something wrong with the environment, but I just can't really figure out what. That Nashville observed sounding was one of the most impressive observed soundings we've seen in a while, and I can only imagine instability would have been greater further north. Clearly we have a long way to go to fully understand tornadoes!

 

[buckeye05]

Breathing a sigh of relief after this one. There’s some damage no doubt, but this didn’t come close to being as bad as it could have. The Ohio Valley region is still recovering from the February 27-28 and March 13-15 outbreaks. The last thing they would have needed was a third one.

 

[tornado examiner]

Question…with regards to historical data what's the different between positively tilted and negatively tilted troughs likelihood to bust or not perform optimally?

 

[keithGA]

The rotation in the Conyers, GA storm passed directly over me after it had lifted. I live about 25mi ENE of Conyers. This was pretty close to that long UH track on the HRRR I posted about.

 

[buckeye05]

Conyers damage doesn’t look too bad. Looks like mostly just downed trees.

 

[jiharris0220]

In KY, IN and OH, we really dodged a bullet. Unfortunately it looks like there was some damage, but it could have been a lot worse.

What I find interesting is that the storm mode and evolution were literally as forecast - if anything even better with a good 6 or 7 discrete storms. Yet storms really struggled to produce tornadoes. Clearly, there was something wrong with the environment, but I just can't really figure out what. That Nashville observed sounding was one of the most impressive observed soundings we've seen in a while, and I can only imagine instability would have been greater further north. Clearly we have a long way to go to fully understand tornadoes!

It was the lack of buoyancy, very subpar lapse rates that led to very weak updrafts.
Storms were simply too anemic to take advantage of the kinematics regardless of how favorable.
What would’ve been an easy mid level dry air layer for storms to punch through might as well have been a cap with the weak lift.
The weak forcing would’ve been a favorable factor had it not been for lapse rates barely going over -6c per km and dropping below even that once night fell.
The proof of all of this is every cell in the warm sector look very oblong/disorganized, (no real classic supercell shape) and small. Another clue was looking at the cloud tops, as most cells during the day barely had -50 at coldest. The thin updrafts were simply not capable of reaching those 50000-60000ft heights that would’ve really help in taping into that deep layer shear.
Context clues also lay with the tornadoes themselves, as all of them were of cyclical nature and never long tracked despite extremely favorable wind profiles.

 

[MattW]

First aerial imagery of the Conyers damage.

 

[MichelleH]

Considering the potential that was there was for yesterday, with the end result being possible dead, injured, homeless, loss of businesses, etc. - I'm quite happy with a "bust," even though it wasn't. There were some tornadoes, just not what was expected. Honestly, anyone that gets upset that there wasn't mass destruction, people killed or maimed from flying debris and communities devastated, needs to have their head examined and doesn't deserve to be considered part of the weather community. Today is the 50th anniversary of the 1974 Super Outbreak. If anyone is upset that yesterday was not a repeat (and not here, but there were morons elsewhere saying it would be), they need to reread the accounts of that horrific day/night. I will be thankful for a "bust" EVERY SINGLE TIME because I KNOW what these things will do. Moving on. /rant

 

[jiharris0220]

Yea, look’s barely ef1 from that aerial so far at least.

 

[JPWX]

Considering the potential that was there was for yesterday, with the end result being possible dead, injured, homeless, loss of businesses, etc. - I'm quite happy with a "bust," even though it wasn't. There were some tornadoes, just not what was expected. Honestly, anyone that gets upset that there wasn't mass destruction, people killed or maimed from flying debris and communities devastated, needs to have their head examined and doesn't deserve to be considered part of the weather community. Today is the 50th anniversary of the 1974 Super Outbreak. If anyone is upset that yesterday was not a repeat (and not here, but there were morons elsewhere saying it would be), they need to reread the accounts of that horrific day/night. I will be thankful for a "bust" EVERY SINGLE TIME because I KNOW what these things will do. Moving on. /rant

In my opinion, a bust is when absolutely nothing happens (hail/damaging winds/tornadoes). And you are absolutely correct!

 

[Cood101]

Considering the potential that was there was for yesterday, with the end result being possible dead, injured, homeless, loss of businesses, etc. - I'm quite happy with a "bust," even though it wasn't. There were some tornadoes, just not what was expected. Honestly, anyone that gets upset that there wasn't mass destruction, people killed or maimed from flying debris and communities devastated, needs to have their head examined and doesn't deserve to be considered part of the weather community. Today is the 50th anniversary of the 1974 Super Outbreak. If anyone is upset that yesterday was not a repeat (and not here, but there were morons elsewhere saying it would be), they need to reread the accounts of that horrific day/night. I will be thankful for a "bust" EVERY SINGLE TIME because I KNOW what these things will do. Moving on. /rant

 

[GA Stormchaser]

Yea, look’s barely ef1 from that aerial so far at least.

I live in the Atlanta metro area. Here is what I saw from the terminal Doppler radar last night. Kinda takes your breath away.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Clancy]

In the wake of this storm system, take a look at its presentation as it sweeps out of the area. Powerful yet beautiful.

 

[warneagle]

Tornado warning just popped west of Richmond

 

[TornadoFan17]

In the wake of this storm system, take a look at its presentation as it sweeps out of the area. Powerful yet beautiful.
View attachment 24979

Midlatitude Cyclones are a thing of beauty