Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28, 2024 - (Saturday, Sunday)

TornadoFan

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More cells are developing in western Oklahoma near the TX state line. Some of them already have that kidney bean look to them.
 
Fred Gossage

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With none of the 12z CAMs really capturing reality this morning with respect to how widespread (or not widespread, as the case actually is) this late morning to midday stuff has ended up evolving, and that giving us an overall lower confidence on how storms will evolve this afternoon on a day when there are synoptic things that try to point toward trying to get messy with structure and organization, the correct call has been for the outlook to stay at Moderate, even if the event ends up verifying a High in hindsight. You have to take a step back and look at the overall synoptics of the setup, and there are still factors present that may limit how long storms can stay discrete/semi-discrete before interrupting each other and going messy. There's just too much uncertainty in the evolution for pulling the trigger on the most potent option you have in the toolbox. It's a confidence factor, and that's all, imo. Having said that, with the morning EML being as stout as it was over the warm sector on the 12z OUN sounding and so much of Oklahoma being unaffected by this early activity (especially compared to what morning models suggested), while the best practice decision would be to remain Moderate Risk, it would also be to make the tornado watch this afternoon over the highest threat area a PDS Tornado Watch. While the confidence in how the convective mode evolves for a longer window in time isn't that high even still this late in, the conditional potential is there for something really nasty to happen. There is definitely a roadmap there for this event to possibly produce violent, long-track >EF3 tornadoes over Oklahoma this afternoon and evening.
 
Clancy

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Fred Gossage said:
With none of the 12z CAMs really capturing reality this morning with respect to how widespread (or not widespread, as the case actually is) this late morning to midday stuff has ended up evolving, and that giving us an overall lower confidence on how storms will evolve this afternoon on a day when there are synoptic things that try to point toward trying to get messy with structure and organization, the correct call has been for the outlook to stay at Moderate, even if the event ends up verifying a High in hindsight. You have to take a step back and look at the overall synoptics of the setup, and there are still factors present that may limit how long storms can stay discrete/semi-discrete before interrupting each other and going messy. There's just too much uncertainty in the evolution for pulling the trigger on the most potent option you have in the toolbox. It's a confidence factor, and that's all, imo. Having said that, with the morning EML being as stout as it was over the warm sector on the 12z OUN sounding and so much of Oklahoma being unaffected by this early activity (especially compared to what morning models suggested), while the best practice decision would be to remain Moderate Risk, it would also be to make the tornado watch this afternoon over the highest threat area a PDS Tornado Watch. While the confidence in how the convective mode evolves for a longer window in time isn't that high even still this late in, the conditional potential is there for something really nasty to happen. There is definitely a roadmap there for this event to possibly produce violent, long-track >EF3 tornadoes over Oklahoma this afternoon and evening.
Click to expand...
Whenever someone takes issue with a lack of High, you can always remind them of the Easter 2020 outbreak, a MOD day with great predicted coverage by the areal risks that ended up being one of the biggest outbreaks in American history. What matters is ultimately people knowing to be careful.
 
Clancy

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New Tornado Watch for OK. PDS. 80/80 probs.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 146
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Western Oklahoma
Northwest Texas

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1240 PM
until 800 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* Primary threats include...
Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely
Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph likely

SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon along and east of a dryline over western Oklahoma and
northwest Texas. Supercells are expected, capable of very large
hail and damaging winds. The most intense cells may also produce
strong or potentially long-tracked tornadoes.
Click to expand...
 
Fred Gossage

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Fred Gossage said:
With none of the 12z CAMs really capturing reality this morning with respect to how widespread (or not widespread, as the case actually is) this late morning to midday stuff has ended up evolving, and that giving us an overall lower confidence on how storms will evolve this afternoon on a day when there are synoptic things that try to point toward trying to get messy with structure and organization, the correct call has been for the outlook to stay at Moderate, even if the event ends up verifying a High in hindsight. You have to take a step back and look at the overall synoptics of the setup, and there are still factors present that may limit how long storms can stay discrete/semi-discrete before interrupting each other and going messy. There's just too much uncertainty in the evolution for pulling the trigger on the most potent option you have in the toolbox. It's a confidence factor, and that's all, imo. Having said that, with the morning EML being as stout as it was over the warm sector on the 12z OUN sounding and so much of Oklahoma being unaffected by this early activity (especially compared to what morning models suggested), while the best practice decision would be to remain Moderate Risk, it would also be to make the tornado watch this afternoon over the highest threat area a PDS Tornado Watch. While the confidence in how the convective mode evolves for a longer window in time isn't that high even still this late in, the conditional potential is there for something really nasty to happen. There is definitely a roadmap there for this event to possibly produce violent, long-track >EF3 tornadoes over Oklahoma this afternoon and evening.
Click to expand...
Having said all this above, if we do see a convincing enough signal prior to 20z that these storms will be able to stay discrete/semi-discrete for a long enough time this afternoon, then yes, I would support a risk upgrade at 20z. It all comes down to confidence. The conditional potential intensity of the event is sufficient for a High Risk.
 
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