With none of the 12z CAMs really capturing reality this morning with respect to how widespread (or not widespread, as the case actually is) this late morning to midday stuff has ended up evolving, and that giving us an overall lower confidence on how storms will evolve this afternoon on a day when there are synoptic things that try to point toward trying to get messy with structure and organization, the correct call has been for the outlook to stay at Moderate, even if the event ends up verifying a High in hindsight. You have to take a step back and look at the overall synoptics of the setup, and there are still factors present that may limit how long storms can stay discrete/semi-discrete before interrupting each other and going messy. There's just too much uncertainty in the evolution for pulling the trigger on the most potent option you have in the toolbox. It's a confidence factor, and that's all, imo. Having said that, with the morning EML being as stout as it was over the warm sector on the 12z OUN sounding and so much of Oklahoma being unaffected by this early activity (especially compared to what morning models suggested), while the best practice decision would be to remain Moderate Risk, it would also be to make the tornado watch this afternoon over the highest threat area a PDS Tornado Watch. While the confidence in how the convective mode evolves for a longer window in time isn't that high even still this late in, the conditional potential is there for something really nasty to happen. There is definitely a roadmap there for this event to possibly produce violent, long-track >EF3 tornadoes over Oklahoma this afternoon and evening.