Kory
Member
The NAM is showing some entrainment of dry air in the lower levels due to some WSW 850mb winds. That is my biggest concern which may preclude a higher end tornado threat.
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Archive March 18-20th, 2018 Severe Weather
- Thread starter Taylor Campbell
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- severe weather
rolltide_130
Member
I do think this is going to be a mainly E of I-65 event.. there, 850 winds are more favorable and there's less dry air entrainment.
On that note, the 3km NAM is bonkers..
On that note, the 3km NAM is bonkers..
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Xenesthis
Guest
How is this trending for areas to the east of Murfreesboro TN?I do think this is going to be a mainly E of I-65 event.. there, 850 winds are more favorable and there's less dry air entrainment.
On that note, the 3km NAM is bonkers..
rolltide_130
Member
Everywhere between I-40 in TN and I-20 in AL needs to be on guard Monday. The picture is becoming a little clearer as to where our highest threat areas are going to be but nothing can be ruled out.
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Xenesthis
Guest
Yeah I am well south of I-40 and east of Murfreesboro... Is this looking like a more hail situation or are tornadoes on the board at this current point
the 8b0 mb dry could be result of mixing
I would be willing to bet the threat shifts a little west or maybe expands a little west. There is something strange with the way the surface low almost reforms so quickly east... typically this sort of thing becomes corrected withing the 36 hour range. I guess it could be correct, but it just doesn't look right to me.
- Thread starter
- Moderator
- #87
How can you be serious about that statement?
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Xenesthis
Guest
Well something about this isn’t sitting right with me either... looking at the new models they are now showing nothing for my area at all (35.6866° N, 85.7801°).. No big deal
Can you please provide me the link to this graphic?Sundays outlook
F
Former Member
Guest
Kory
Member
Don't be surprised to see some severe wx out of the MCS that moves across Central AL tomorrow night. A local LLJ max looks to accompany it as it rides along the warm front/I-20/59 corridor.
Equus
Member
For what it's worth, pretty impressive pair of supercells traversing the Nantahala NF area of western NC tonight. Lots of impressive hail and south of the watch area. Lead storm is consistently tornado warned with decent rotation.
- Moderator
- #93
Lol TSC often goes against the grain.
I for one am excited, but not entirely convinced of the tornado threat being NAM level bad yet (which is what I think he meant & I think many on here would agree with)
But if things continue like they have been I'll certainly be more persuaded in 24-36hrs time.
There's good potential, especially with the fairly decent model agreement. Ironing out the crucial synoptic details related to tornadogenesis are difficult at this time frame anyway, which is what we've been trying to do. Overall pattern is very conducive for severe weather, hail & wind particularly. Wouldn't be the least bit shocked if something fudges the tornado potential or if things align perfectly and it ends up being a rough day.
One trend to watch for is if the closed upper low starts "cycling" back to the west...the last couple of frames suggest that will happen. This will allow the surface low to move a little slower, also if stronger, will help the low level jet as the surface low will still be strengthening.
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rolltide_130
Member
I'm one of a few people who have been watching for this trend. General climatology rules state that the more typical southern surface low track for a Dixie threat takes it through NE AR, the MO Bootheel, and up the OH River Valley. It would be very anomalous for this to actually track through southern middle TN, and the NW trend bias is a normal one in these conditions.
I see what your saying, but there are several anomalous items that you can pick out in this pattern, so not sure if that idea really works in this setup.
rolltide_130
Member
Well, every significant severe weather setup has something anomalous about it in Dixie. That's why we usually only get a serious risk for an outbreak every couple years. If it didn't take anomalies to produce a significant risk, we'd have them almost every time a surface low moved through!
However, the placement of the trough and associated jet streak isn't something that's terribly unusual for a Dixie threat. I'd wager that once it accounts for convective feedback, we'll see it move back into its normal position.
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Xenesthis
Guest
This is what I was thinking! However I really think this event will be east of 65... which is unusual to say the least. I will just be curious to see if TN is in play or if this is an AL and GA event
Kory
Member
Big dry air punch at 850mb on the NAM for Monday. I have a hard time believing we won't mix out IF that is the case.
rolltide_130
Member
The 0z NAM run in general seems extremely off. It plummeted the surface temps for some reason and the warm front is almost down on the coast at the beginning of the day, and I can't find a meteorologically sound reasoning as to why..