January 27th deep south severe wx

[UncleJuJu98]

A day 4 has been pushed out by the guys at SPC for a low cape high shear event as worded in there discussion. Main timeframe looks to be Saturday afternoon.

 

[MichelleH]

From this morning's AFD from BMX:

A larger area of rain and a few storms is expected on Saturday as a
500mb trough approaches. The intensity of this activity will have to
be monitored as it will move across locations that will have already
racked up a few inches of rain from earlier in the week. The speed
of this system may save us from a renewed and elevated flood threat.
A few runs of models have shown potential for some instability to
develop ahead of the front in the presence of deep-layer shear. If
this were to happen, parameters could support a few strong storms.
This will come down to timing. If the system is fairly progressive,
we won`t have time to realize the instability.

 

[KevinH]

So far I am thinking the ceiling isn’t very high with this event. More of a typical springtime event…..

….FOR NOW…..

 

[UncleJuJu98]

So far I am thinking the ceiling isn’t very high with this event. More of a typical springtime event…..

….FOR NOW…..

There's some wiggle room for a decent event. Not a high impact one, but I think there's enough wiggleroom for a moderate instability day, still many questions remain answered but you got a shot for some severe in your neck of the woods KevinH

 

[KevinH]

There's some wiggle room for a decent event. Not a high impact one, but I think there's enough wiggleroom for a moderate instability day, still many questions remain answered but you got a shot for some severe in your neck of the woods KevinH

Right! lol

 

[Clancy]

Nothing outstanding about the parameters for Saturday, but the GFS and NAM show no preceding precipitation ahead of the main bulk of convection, and wind fields are relatively favorable.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Nothing outstanding about the parameters for Saturday, but the GFS and NAM show no preceding precipitation ahead of the main bulk of convection, and wind fields are relatively favorable.

Man can these events overperform though, like march 3 2019 and January last year.

 

[Clancy]

Man can these events overperform though, like march 3 2019 and January last year.

Oh for sure, just because it looks meager doesn't mean it'll act that way.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Man does the 12z Nam reflectivity look impressive but the parameters look like hot doodoo hahah.

 

[Clancy]

Man does the 12z Nam reflectivity look impressive but the parameters look like hot doodoo hahah.

Not sure I buy the NAM's solution on thermodynamics. With solid moisture return and very little in the way of antecedent convection, I think it may be dragging parameters-wise.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Not sure I buy the NAM's solution on thermodynamics. With solid moisture return and very little in the way of antecedent convection, I think it may be dragging parameters-wise.

Sounds like the status quo of the NAM lol

 

[UncleJuJu98]

18z Nam is a lot better. A better warm sector, let's see if the parameters mesh better in future runs.

 

[Clancy]

18z Nam is a lot better. A better warm sector, let's see if the parameters mesh better in future runs.

Also slowed things down a bit.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Also slowed things down a bit.

I won't have to leave my backyard if it's true lol. I think this run got my attention. See a drop in mb's on that low pressure and things will get even more dicey.

 

[KevinH]

Man can these events overperform though, like march 3 2019 and January last year.

Not a fan of that day

 

[wx_guy]

Not a fan of that day

Me either. I lived in Auburn, AL at the time. Will never forget that day.

 

[KevinH]

Me either. I lived in Auburn, AL at the time. Will never forget that day.

Same. Where do you live now?

 

[wx_guy]

Same. Where do you live now?

Tallahassee, FL

 

[TH2002]

Welp, finally something to take my mind off of guns for a few days. Of course my mind is making the waiting period go by at a snails pace...

Not particularly impressed with this setup but the GFS model is forecasting 1000-1500 j/kg of CAPE and 200-250 m2s2 of SRH in southeast Alabama. Seems like bulk shear could be one of the deciding factors here, along with quality of moisture return and other stuff I admit I don't quite understand. I'd say the potential will be there for a cell to sneak up on us and drop a sigtor for no reason.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Also slowed things down a bit.

Looks like 0Z sped things back up a bit, low-level winds are veering along the cold front and low-level hodographs pretty straight by 21Z when instability peaks in Alabama. There's hardly any instability further out in the warm sector where the greater SRH is.

Something could still come together, but it would take some tweaks to the evolution of the setup as currently modeled.