Clancy
Member
Some CAMs depicting a sneaky low-topped supercell threat after that big rain shield for Saturday for a good portion of AL. SPC seems to go with that as well. Setups like this can sometimes spit out some surprises, even when parameters appear only marginally favorable, but can of course also be non-events.
In its wake, an intrusion of steeper 700-500 mb lapse rates (beneath
weak upper-level lapse rates) should accompany the shortwave trough
moving east across the Mid-South. This will likely aid in afternoon
destabilization towards the TN Valley. Guidance differs on the
degree of boundary-layer destabilization, ahead of the weakly
cyclogenetic surface low expected to evolve from the Ark-La-Miss to
eastern TN. But there are indications that cloud breaks may occur
from southeast MS into parts of west AL beneath the mid-level dry
slot, which may yield a confined plume of weak surface-based
instability. Conditionally, a moderately enlarged low-level
hodograph below a rather elongated mid to upper hodograph would
favor the possibility of a few low-topped, discrete supercells,
before low-level winds become increasingly veered near the impinging
cold front. This appears focused on the central to north AL vicinity
during the late afternoon to early evening. Should adequate
destabilization occur at peak heating, a couple tornadoes will be
possible before convection tends to subside after dusk and with
eastern extent into GA.
..Grams.. 01/26/2024