Severe Weather 2024

[JPWX]

I'm definitely not a long range tornado expert and I'm geared towards hurricanes/tropical system long range forecasting because that's an easier linkage with ENSO etc. Severe weather and tornadoes are much more difficult to forecast well in advance.

 

[StormStalker]

Started a thread for ongoing severe threat

https://talkweather.com/threads/severe-threat-4-18-4-19.2259/

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Model guidance has a strong signal for a system capable of severe weather Thursday, April 25th - Sunday, April 28th. The threat looks most likely in the Plains, Midwest, and Mid South regions.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Model guidance has a strong signal for a system capable of severe weather Thursday, April 25th - Sunday, April 28th. The threat looks most likely in the Plains, Midwest, and Mid South regions.

Yeah looking at medium n longer range , could get pretty interesting …. Spc agrees on their 4 to 8 day outlook they have this morning … with a day 7 already
Highlighted in the central plains ….

 

[ctopher5]

I would hate to write off severe weather for the south on April 18th…. But I start to wonder that…. Just been a strange severe weather season to me .

It’s felt strange to me too. Can’t remember a year that’s been as boring and just…blah as it has this year.

 

[MichelleH]

Model guidance has a strong signal for a system capable of severe weather Thursday, April 25th - Sunday, April 28th. The threat looks most likely in the Plains, Midwest, and Mid South regions.

Oh, I really hope there's not a threat for the South on that Saturday. People are going to freak out.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

12Z GFS looks like a great chase setup for Saturday the 27th. Plenty of time for it to downtrend like the last one.

 

[jiharris0220]

It’s felt strange to me too. Can’t remember a year that’s been as boring and just…blah as it has this year.

2018 easily beats this year in terms of being fortunately boring so far.
Only 12 ef3s and not a single violent tornado. Had the record lowest amount of tornadic fatalities on record amazingly.
It’ll be nice if this year could break that record.

 

[Clancy]

Things that make you go hmm.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Things that make you go hmm.
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Just your casual unwarned (not even a SVR) obvious supercell on a marginal risk day...

 

[lake.effect]

Even with recent hype - bust cycle, it's hard to not be a little excited for late next week after looking at the 18z model runs.
GFS in particular wants to sweep entire middle 1/3 of the country with 2 or 3 separate outbreaks.
Failure modes of recent events do not seem to be an issue. Cautiously optimistic and watching carefully...

 

[Timhsv]

Model guidance has a strong signal for a system capable of severe weather Thursday, April 25th - Sunday, April 28th. The threat looks most likely in the Plains, Midwest, and Mid South regions.

I agree. Kinda hard to ignore this signal 2 runs in a row so far. Look at that date as well. Time will tell as we've all seen this Spring.

 

[Austin Dawg]

They are more worried about heavy rain here than storms tomorrow. I'm only mentioning that because usually if we get heavy rain, somebody's gonna get a flood.

 

[MichelleH]

Kinda hard to ignore this signal 2 runs in a row so far. Look at that date as well. Time will tell as we've all seen this Spring.
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Apologies. I'm very tired and about to go to bed, but in my delirium it appeared that a giant ant in Mississippi is about to eat Alabama. And now you see it too. Ha! Good night and let's hope we don't have severe on THAT day please.

 

[JPWX]

I'm having my road dedication ceremony in Smithville at 10am Saturday morning April 27th. All I'm asking is that any threat holds off until after 10am.

 

[Timhsv]

00Z GEFS ....not deterministic models. Time to start paying attention towards next weekend.

 

[MichelleH]

From SPC extended outlook:

On Saturday,
some model solutions suggest a large-scale upper-level trough will
develop over the southwestern U.S., with southwest mid-level flow
remaining in place over much of the south-central U.S. Although
spread among the solutions is somewhat large by Saturday, the models
suggest a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across parts
of the south-central states. Storms that develop within this airmass
would have potential to be severe. However, predictability at this
range remains too low to outlook a threat area.

 

[jiharris0220]

Yet another multi day severe weather threat, I’d be more concerned about these. Parameters such as lapse rates and deep layer moisture are naturally much more significant in late April into May.
The subtropical jet becomes weaker and move’s more poleward during the late spring and onwards and won’t be restricting upper level moisture returns, and instead will aid in those.
And of course the tropopause rises as well during this time period, which allows for deeper convection and colder cloud tops. Rising air parcels have a lot more breathing room with a naturally higher Equilibrium layer.

 

[lake.effect]

View attachment 25492View attachment 25493
Yet another multi day severe weather threat, I’d be more concerned about these. Parameters such as lapse rates and deep layer moisture are naturally much more significant in late April into May.
The subtropical jet becomes weaker and move’s more poleward during the late spring and onwards and won’t be restricting upper level moisture returns, and instead will aid in those.
And of course the tropopause rises as well during this time period, which allows for deeper convection and colder cloud tops. Rising air parcels have a lot more breathing room with a naturally higher Equilibrium layer.

It's still early, but model consensus is pretty strong. April 25th-29th look to be the most active severe days of 2024.
In terms of raw severe weather output, the 00z GFS is one of the highest runs I can remember seeing.

Again, still plenty of time for things to change (and get disappointed, lol) but I think we will finally see something big happen next week.

 

[JPWX]

00Z GEFS ....not deterministic models. Time to start paying attention towards next weekend.

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Well if we were to have one it would be on my 30th Birthday weekend. My birthday is April 28th. To be honest, that's the most aggressive I've seen in a good while over MS. O boy. (And no I did not send out a birthday invitation to damaging winds, tornadoes, and hail)