Severe WX March 11th-12th, 2023

[TileDude]

 

[TileDude]

From Spann:

MAJOR FORECAST CHANGE: Originally the forecast was for strong to severe thunderstorms across Alabama tomorrow afternoon/evening. But, based on current observations and high resolution model trends, some wholesale changes need to be made.

*It now looks like the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will come after midnight tonight, in the general time frame from 1 am until 12 noon Sunday.

*The main threat initially will come from strong gusty winds after midnight across North Alabama. As the line of storms encounters better instability over the southern half of the state, an isolated tornado is possible mainly south of I-20 after 6:00 a.m.

*The risk of severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon will be mainly over the southern third of the state, south of U.S. 80.

Be sure you have a reliable way of hearing a warning in the middle of the night in the event they are needed (a NOAA Weather Radio is the best choice).

I understand this is not in line with the current SPC forecast; but it is in agreement with latest thinking from NWS Birmingham. Weather in March can be complex here, and the forecast can change like this. I will post more notes later this evening.

 

[KevinH]

From Spann:

MAJOR FORECAST CHANGE: Originally the forecast was for strong to severe thunderstorms across Alabama tomorrow afternoon/evening. But, based on current observations and high resolution model trends, some wholesale changes need to be made.

*It now looks like the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will come after midnight tonight, in the general time frame from 1 am until 12 noon Sunday.

*The main threat initially will come from strong gusty winds after midnight across North Alabama. As the line of storms encounters better instability over the southern half of the state, an isolated tornado is possible mainly south of I-20 after 6:00 a.m.

*The risk of severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon will be mainly over the southern third of the state, south of U.S. 80.

Be sure you have a reliable way of hearing a warning in the middle of the night in the event they are needed (a NOAA Weather Radio is the best choice).

I understand this is not in line with the current SPC forecast; but it is in agreement with latest thinking from NWS Birmingham. Weather in March can be complex here, and the forecast can change like this. I will post more notes later this evening.

ooooo I wonder if the SPC will issue a special D2 outlook given the threats cross the 7am cut off time

BUWAHAHAHAHA

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Pretty wicked rotation. Probably no ground truth just elevated with hail

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I wish to make my handle the "warm advection regime" hahaha.
The whole wording they're sets up a funny slash weird image in my mind

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[JBishopwx]

So far, no major reports here on the Mississippi side.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Hrrr shows potential for some spins near the coastal regions later with this system

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Severe warned storms southwest of Jackson. May start seeing some spin ups soon

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

looks like it will be about another week n half to two weeks before see pattern shift into a better severe weather setup for most on this board. still like end of this month going into the month of april. buckle up .one analog year got my attention for month of april was , april 2006... there was a event that put out a 60 percent signature for tornadoes for mid outh and tennessese valley ...

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

looks like it will be about another week n half to two weeks before see pattern shift into a better severe weather setup for most on this board. still like end of this month going into the month of april. buckle up .one analog year got my attention for month of april was , april 2006... there was a event that put out a 60 percent signature for tornadoes for mid outh and tennessese valley ...

That event underperformed but it spawned an F3 that was originally F4 and in all honesty probably shouldn't have been downgraded.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

That event underperformed but it spawned an F3 that was originally F4 and in all honesty probably shouldn't have been downgraded.

yeah that event was a keg of dynamite waiting to explode... it did get going pretty good other side of tennessee river

 

[UncleJuJu98]

looks like it will be about another week n half to two weeks before see pattern shift into a better severe weather setup for most on this board. still like end of this month going into the month of april. buckle up .one analog year got my attention for month of april was , april 2006... there was a event that put out a 60 percent signature for tornadoes for mid outh and tennessese valley ...

I'll take the break! Any break is good for this active start of the year

 

[KevinH]

Uhm

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Decent mesocyclone here

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Three back to back to back supercells with severe weather warning south of amercius georgia

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Tds on the Florida panhandle??
South of chipley

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Seems like there's possible a waterspout southwest of Destin off the coast

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Tornado warning southeast of Albany Georgia! Appears to be a very faint CC drop