Severe WX March 11th-12th, 2023

[Taylor Campbell]

A discussion thread for the weekend severe weather threat March 11th-12th, 2023.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

I was wondering who was going to pull the trigger and make a thread. I sounded the alarm for this weekend around 7 days ago.

Model flip flopping was probably biggest reason for the delay.

My guess is this will keep current slight risk bubble and may get a smaller localized enhanced bubble Sunday morning.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Kevin forgot to do his job... Smh..

 

[KevinH]

I was wondering who was going to pull the trigger and make a thread. I sounded the alarm for this weekend around 7 days ago.

Model flip flopping was probably biggest reason for the delay.

My guess is this will keep current slight risk bubble and may get a smaller localized enhanced bubble Sunday morning.

Not me…. I think I have created enough threads for a bit hahahahaa… we’ll see what happens towards the end of the month in April

I think the policy for creating threads has been updated. Threads should only be created for threats that are within 8 days if the event. Events more than 9 days out (regardless of the chatter online and what the models say are to be kept in the Severe Weather 2023 thread.

Personally, I would not create a thread within D8 now unless and until the SPC highlights an area, but that is just me.

I wont get “concerned” until about D3 if there has been model consistency. The model flip flopping gets on my nerves, so I just ignore them until about D3 LOL

 

[KevinH]

Kevin forgot to do his job... Smh..

Oh hush lol

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Hrrr shows a pretty nasty squall line Sunday for south alabama and south Mississippi

 

[KevinH]

Hrrr shows a pretty nasty squall line Sunday for south alabama and south Mississippi

Shocker lol

Not surprised honestly

 

[JBishopwx]

 

 

[UncleJuJu98]

It's been a while since ive seen such a robust QCLS in south Alabama as the 06z hrrr shows lol

 

[UncleJuJu98]

May be a robust spin up threat with the storms as well haven't completely looked at everything yet. But that's relatively impressive.

Paint me stupid but a enchanched for wind damage may be needed eventually

 

[Clancy]

Potent-looking squall line per the 12Z HRRR for S AL and NW FL tomorrow. Also the CAD over N GA is quite the sight on modelling.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Short term guidance such as the CSU-MLP and nadocast show tornado probs of 10% tomorrow. I suspect we could see a significant tornado tomorrow.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Hey! The hrrr has a pretty significant cell taking advantage of. A pretty good environment on the hrrr over west Arkansas today...

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Current run of the HRRR. Hodographs are pretty good in those areas.. might be worth watching tonight... Probably will end up as very large hail but maybe a spin up

 

[KevinH]

May be a robust spin up threat with the storms as well haven't completely looked at everything yet. But that's relatively impressive.

Paint me stupid but a enchanched for wind damage may be needed eventually View attachment 18681

To the south of me….. good

 

[KevinH]

Short term guidance such as the CSU-MLP and nadocast show tornado probs of 10% tomorrow. I suspect we could see a significant tornado tomorrow.

You mean this?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Hrrr presents a pretty robust event for coastal and south Alabama tommorow. I'd honestly be surprised if we don't see a enchanched risk

 

[KevinH]

Hrrr presents a pretty robust event for coastal and south Alabama tommorow. I'd honestly be surprised if we don't see a enchanched risk

ENH for hail or wind?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

ENH for hail or wind?

Damaging winds I would think

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Hrrr predicting a insane hailstorm in Arkansas in a few hours