2024 Tropical Cyclone season discussion

[Atlantic]

A thread for the 2024 worldwide tropical cyclone season

Current Activity:

12 depressions; 12 nameable storms; 4 hurricane-force cyclones; 2 major cyclones
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2024 Tropical Cyclone Season:
Tropical Cyclone Belal (SWIO) (Jan 12 - Jan 18) - 100 mph; 968 mbs
Severe Tropical Cyclone (Intense Tropical Cyclone) Anngrek (AR, Jakarta to SWIO) (Jan 15 - Jan 30) - 140 mph; 944 mbs
Tropical Cyclone Kirrliy (AR) (Jan 23 - Feb 5) (Remnant low between Jan 26 and Feb 4) ) - 75 mph; 988 mbs
Severe Tropical Storm Candice (SWIO) (Jan 24 - Jan 28) - 60 mph; 982 mbs
Moderate Tropical Storm 09S (SWIO) (Jan 31 - Feb 2) - 40 mph; 996 mbs
Tropical Cyclone Nat (Feb 5 - Feb 8th) (SPAC) - 50 mph; 993 mbs
Tropical Cyclone Osai (Feb 6 - Feb 8th) (SPAC) - 60 mph; 992 mbs
Tropical Cyclone 12P (Feb 7 - Feb 9) - 45 mph; 996 mbs
Intense Tropical Cyclone Djoungou (Feb 14 - present) (SWIO) - 145 mph; 938 mbs
Tropical Cyclone Lincoin (Feb 15th - present) (AR) - 40 mph; 991 mbs
Tropical Cyclone 15P (Feb 15 - Feb 17) (SPAC) - 50 mph; 994 mbs
Tropical Storm Akara (Feb 19 - present) (SATL) - current: 50 mph; 994 mbs​

 

[Atlantic]

The JTWC began issuing advisories on Invest 90P as Tropical Cyclone 07P overnight. Current intensity is 40 mph with a pressure of 993 mbs

 

[Atlantic]

Tropical Cyclone 07P has been named Tropical Cyclone Kirrliy by the BOM. The JTWC has the intensity at 50 mph with a pressure of 993 mbs. It is expected to peak as a BOM Category 2 tropical cyclone by the JTWC with a peak of 65 mph in about 36 hours and is still expected to make landfall in Queensland, Australia.



Tropical Cyclone Anngrek has reintensified to a hurricane-equivelent cyclone with a current intensity of 90 mph according to TropicalTidbits and a pressure of 980 mbs. The storm has been stalling and slowly moving around just east of the Australian Region boundry. It is expected to enter the SWIO tomorrow and RI to 120 mph (an Intense Tropical Cyclone on Metro-France's TC scale)

 

[Atlantic]

Kirrliy made landfall just north of Townsville, Australia overnight. It peaked at 75 mph with a pressure of 988 mbs. Anngrek has crossed into the South-West Indian Ocean and is now a Tropical Cyclone on Metro-France's scale. Winds still stand at 90 mph with a slightly lower pressure at 978 mbs. The JTWC upgraded Invest 92S to Moderate Tropical Storm Candice overnight. Winds are currently 60 mph with a pressure of 982 mbs.



Second image from left to right: Candice on left, Anngrek in the middle; and Kirrliy on the right.

 

[WesL]

Just lined up, ready to roll through the southern hemisphere. I imagine the water temps are pegged right now.

 

[Atlantic]

Just lined up, ready to roll through the southern hemisphere. I imagine the water temps are pegged right now.

Anngrek is heading for some above-average SST's right now. Candice is likely to be short-lived though. According the wikipedia, we now have Tropical Disturbance 04F in the South Pacific and in the eastern AR; Kirrliy is weakening overland but could reform into a new storm on the western side of the AR.

The warmest SST's are in the South Pacific though right now due to the now-weakening El Nino. Anngrek is an interesting case of a long-lived storm. As of now, Anngrek has lived 10 days.

 

[Atlantic]

The South Pacific has been weirdly quiet even though an El Nino is still going (though it is weakening and will like go neutral by March). No storms have formed per the JTWC since November in the area. Last storm was Severe Tropical Cyclone Mal.

 

[Atlantic]

Anngrek has intensified into an Intense Tropical Cyclone, the first of the year and the first major cyclone of the year globally overall. Candice has weakened to 50 mph and is on its way out. Kirrily has degraded into a remnant low inland over Australia.

 

[Atlantic]

Anggrek intensified to 140 mph with a pressure of 944 mbs on January 29th, which was its' peak intensity. It is now weakening and is expected to become an hurricane-force extratropical low with a day or two.
Candice is long gone now but Kirrliy's remnants are still going over Australia with a slight chance to reemerge over water into the Gulf of Carpentaria on Thursday or Friday.

Invest 93S is trailing behind Anggrek and has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone with the next 24-48 hours. The next name in the SWIO is Djoungou.

For the AR it is Lincoln and for the SPAC it is still Nat.

 

[Atlantic]

Anggrek has transtioned into a post-tropical hurricane-force low, models are pushing the storm southeastward and passing south of New Zealand as an extratropical cyclone.

Invest 93S has become Moderate Tropical Storm 09S, likely to be short lived as the shear really got to it over the past 18 hours since 3 PM EST yesterday.

The BoM's Tropical Low 06U has been tagged Invest 94P by the JTWC.

 

[Atlantic]

There wa

Anggrek has transtioned into a post-tropical hurricane-force low, models are pushing the storm southeastward and passing south of New Zealand as an extratropical cyclone.

Invest 93S has become Moderate Tropical Storm 09S, likely to be short lived as the shear really got to it over the past 18 hours since 3 PM EST yesterday.

The BoM's Tropical Low 06U has been tagged Invest 94P by the JTWC.

View attachment 23693

There was also a short-lived Invest in the Western Pacific yesterday that was tagged Invest 93W. That Invest is no longer being tracked though. It was the first Invest of the year in the Western Pacific but second NHEM Invest of the year after Invest 98B in the North Indian Ocean's Bay of Bengal in early January.

 

[JPWX]

Once again 2024 is off to a slow start in the Western Pacific.

Year's where no tropical systems reached storm intensity in January:

1950, 1951, 1952, 1953, 1954, 1959, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1981, 1983, 1984, 1991, 1993, 1998, 2000, 2004, 2011, 2016, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024.

2020 thru current is the longest consecutive streak at 5 years since 1950 thru 54.

This should say something about the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season.....

 

[WesL]

I'm just going to leave this here......

MSN

www.msn.com

 

[JPWX]

I'm just going to leave this here......

MSN

www.msn.com

 

[Atlantic]

Who remembers the Dakar Nino that formed in the Atlantic in April 2023? I found a similar occurence in June 2004:

 

[Atlantic]

What SSTs anomalies looked like in the world twenty years ago, notice the difference compared to now:

February 12th, 2004 vs February 12th, 2024​

 

[Casuarina Head]

Once again 2024 is off to a slow start in the Western Pacific.

Year's where no tropical systems reached storm intensity in January:

1950, 1951, 1952, 1953, 1954, 1959, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1981, 1983, 1984, 1991, 1993, 1998, 2000, 2004, 2011, 2016, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024.

2020 thru current is the longest consecutive streak at 5 years since 1950 thru 54.

This should say something about the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season...

In what sense, if I may ask? In regard to the bolded: only 2020 ended up even remotely hyperactive ACE-wise in the Atlantic. (2021–3 were underwhelming, especially 2023; one would have expected higher ACE than occurred, given the +AMO; below-average sea-level pressures and/or wind shear; and/or -ENSO. Either stability or the TUTT intervened, owing in part to the Newfoundland warm pool.) Most of the other “above-normal” examples in your set were not hyperactive, other than 1950, 1998, and 2004 (1964 probably makes the cut as well, given sparser observational coverage then). I also see a few other years that featured a quiet Atlantic (1952, 1962) during +AMO. Since 1950 there have been plenty of other seasons that were hyperactive ACE-wise in the Atlantic, including 1961, 1969, 1995, 1996, 1999, 2003, 2005, 2010, and 2017. None of these appears on your list.

What SSTs anomalies looked like in the world twenty years ago, notice the difference compared to now:

View attachment 23883View attachment 23884

February 12th, 2004 vs February 12th, 2024​

@Atlantic A big difference between 2004 and 2024 is the fact that the subtropics, including the Gulf and Eastern Seaboard, are much warmer today. The Mediterranean is much warmer too. 2004 was more of a classic/canonical +AMO in that most of the warmth was restricted to the “horseshoe” between North Africa and the Caribbean; today we still see a strong +AMO in that “horseshoe” but also unusual warmth in the aforementioned regions. This, I think, implies a weaker thermocline and the possibility that the Gulf Stream is slowing down, so a lot of warmth stays “bottled up” close to North America. 2004 had more of a gradient between the tropics and subtropics, so it ended up with one of the highest seasonal ACE indices on record. In 2024 the warmth is much more evenly distributed across the basin, with less of a gradient between the pole and the tropics, so to me that would indicate less of a need for long-lived, intense, ACE-generating storms to redistribute heat.

 

[Atlantic]

The South Atlantic of all places trying to get in on the action of the Southern Hemisphere now:


Procuror front of the possible South Atlantic system

 

[JPWX]

I don't think I have to explain myself or my thoughts. The January's I listed are the only ones where a tropical storm or greater DID NOT form in the western Pacific. I was making a observation on the lack of western Pacific activity thus far and THERE is a teleconnection of lack of western Pacific activity leading to greater activity in the Atlantic. I'm so sorry I didn't mention your list of years. I do my research and present my thoughts. That means I use and choose my own years that match up with current ENSO pattern.

 

[JPWX]

3 tropical systems currently active in the Southern Hemisphere. This is the first occurrence since 2011 that all three tropical basins (SW Indian Ocean, Australian Region, and South Pacific) each have a tropical system active at the same time.

Previous occurrences since 1950 include:

1962
1970
1971