WaryWarren
Member
AmWx, lol. I still get drips and drabs from OT in Kush's discord. I can dm you the link if you like.
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Considering the back-and-forth on models, esp. the GFS, regarding dews, definitely something to watch closely as the event nears. Moisture return will be key to the character of this event for the Deep South.Man if a decent warm sector meshed correctly with the kinematics it would be a eventful day. This type of ejection with a sub 1000mb low usually spells trouble for the southeast when you have a relatively good warm sector. All eyes on the placement and how deep the low is and the quality of the warm sector.
Looks like a nasty squall Monday Tuesday, no secondary low lol
I think we are setting up for another snooze fest overall ….Squall > discrete
I’ll take it lol
Too early to call at this point lolI think we are setting up for another snooze fest overall ….
Appears be heading that direction slowly be honest ….Too early to call at this point lol
I told you we should eyeing our interests towards April lol. Also. Tennessee hasn't had a tornado this year as of yet but every state around here hasAppears be heading that direction slowly be honest ….
The main concern in the extended term continues to be the potential
for severe storms, mainly Monday night, as a potent shortwave ejects
across the southern plains. In response, low level moisture
increases, mainly south of I-20, as denoted by dewpoints in the 63
to 68 degree range. Strong deep shear around 70 kts, and strong low
level directional shear will result in long curved hodographs.
Surface winds will be backed ahead of a prefrontal trough beneath a
favorable 572 to 576 dm 500mb height zone. Storms in this zone,
areas south of I-20, especially along HWY 49 and I-59, will be
capable of producing tornadoes and damaging wind gusts, mostly in
the early morning hours Monday night into Tuesday morning. A forced
squall line will follow with the passage of the prefrontal trough,
which will carry a damaging wind threat and possibly a QLCS tornado
threat before clearing the area by mid Tuesday morning. A slight
risk is currently highlighted in the HWO graphic, but with
increasing confidence, an upgrade to enhanced is likely for the day
2 time frame.