KCweatherboy
Member
Yes they are, will need to be watched closely.
-
Welcome to TalkWeather! We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion. CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER -
April 2024 Weather Video of the Month Post your nominations now!
Svr Wx Event - April 15-17, 2024
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
TornadoFan
Member
20Z DDC sounding shows dewpoints at only 49 degrees.
jiharris0220
Member
Cells in Texas are staying elevated unsurprisingly. Meanwhile, the hrrr has linear development at 10pm. Which I guess is explained by a sudden increase in forcing despite cap, we’ll see.
TornadoFan
Member
CheeselandSkies
Member
DDC radar loop shows a northeastward-moving fine line to the west of the radar site reversing direction and moving WNW. Is this the dryline "retreating"?
Muwx
Member
Storms in OK and Texas are toast. Cap is winning out. We will see if anything happens in KS but lots of storm chasers already bailing there as well.
Would think the general lack of strong convection south of the OK/TX line combined with the very strong cap in the 00z OUN sounding would lead to less contamination for tomorrow. There will definitely be an early round of storms, but there will be less of a tendency for moisture to get cut off from returning north. Might be less contamination of the lapse rates as well.
jiharris0220
Member
Nothing significant was forecasted to occur in Ok and Tx so that’s no surprise. The 10% hatched is in Ks and convection is initiating there as expected. Remains to be seen if they become surfaced base.
TornadoFan17
Member
Muwx
Member
A good chunk of the 10# hatched is under a severe thunderstorm watch. It’s certainly possible big storms go up, but the event certainly does not appear to be living up to the ceiling.
jiharris0220
Member
I don’t know, maybe because the event hasn’t started yet.
TornadoFan
Member
The event wasn't supposed to start until later tonight.
Muwx
Member
Then why do we have a tornado watch the is about to expire and a MD for a 90% likely tornado watch the ended up being a severe thunderstorm watch.
Clancy
Member
Haven't been able to watch this setup much, but I'm guessing the cap has played a big role in limiting convection today?
TornadoFan
Member
JPWX
Member
Me over here watching Wxtwitter ***coughs*** ahem TalkWeather
TornadoFan
Member
Clancy
Member
While taking CAMs at face value is about the last thing anyone should do, it looks like parts of the Upper Midwest could be favorable for storms tomorrow afternoon. @CheeselandSkies, y'all may be getting in on some action.
jiharris0220
Member
I’m just a little confused, for the past 2 days everyone, or at least I thought everyone knew this was a nocturnal threat.
If that cumulus field isn’t up and going by 10pm then it will be safe to say the conditional threat was, well, a conditional threat. Day time convection being non present in Kansas shouldn’t come as a surprise, but I guess events like Apr 27th, 2011 sort of spoiled some people into thinking every event is going to start far earlier than forecasted.
Edit: that line of thunderstorms coming towards me is definitely unexpected, but I’ll take it, lol.
If that cumulus field isn’t up and going by 10pm then it will be safe to say the conditional threat was, well, a conditional threat. Day time convection being non present in Kansas shouldn’t come as a surprise, but I guess events like Apr 27th, 2011 sort of spoiled some people into thinking every event is going to start far earlier than forecasted.
Edit: that line of thunderstorms coming towards me is definitely unexpected, but I’ll take it, lol.
CheeselandSkies
Member
Yes, have made plans to chase. Although the 0Z HRRR threw a wrench in things but not firing a robust second round of supercells like it was before. The first round with its northward-moving cells racing across the warm front and becoming elevated is the only show.
