Is there any ground truth on it still?
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Mesoscale Discussion 0465
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0447 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024
Areas affected...portions of eastern/southeastern Iowa into
northwestern Illinois
Concerning...Tornado Watch 117...
Valid 162147Z - 162315Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 117 continues.
SUMMARY...The ongoing convective line has evolved into semi-discrete
supercells which will allow for an increase in the risk for all
hazards over the next couple of hours. A favorable
shear/thermodynamic environment may also support a strong (EF-2+)
tornado.
DISCUSSION...As of 2140 UTC, regional radar and satellite data
showed the ongoing convective line in southeastern IA has trended
towards more semi-discrete elements, especially with southward
extent, over the last hour. The broader environment remains
favorable for severe storms with moderate buoyancy and strong
deep-layer shear established. Low-level shear has also increased
ahead of the storms with backed surface flow supporting 300-400
m2/s2 of effective SRH observed from area VADs and SPC mesoanalysis.
With a more supercellular mode emerging, the potential for stronger
mesocyclones within a strong low-level shear environment suggests an
increasing potential for tornadoes, in addition to the continued
risk for damaging winds and hail. STP values of 2-3 along with 0-3km
CAPE of 50-100 J/kg favor strong low-level stretching of vertical
vorticity. Large low-level hodogaphs may also support the risk for a
strong (EF-2+) tornado with the longer lived supercells. This
increasing risk may extended near the Quad Cities and farther east
into parts of northwestern IL over the next couple of hours.
Got a pretty beefy wall cloud.Rotation tightening up on Fort Madison cell. This is the one to watch right now IMO
Such a weird season. Lol.It seems like the storms have hit a proverbial barrier of either weaker thermos or unfavorable kinematics.