JPWX
Member
I NEED!!!!
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Svr Wx Event - April 15-17, 2024
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
I NEED!!!!
TornadoFan
Member
It's already trying to hook.
jiharris0220
Member
Wasn’t expecting this storm to organize so quickly, perhaps just a fluke.
TornadoFan
Member
Tops are already over 40,000 feet.
TornadoFan
Member
More cells starting to fire up near Ness City.
TornadoFan
Member
Kolle
Member
Cell near Jetmore and Hanston in Hodgeman County, KS finally went SVR warned. It is trying its best out there. 
TheSuckZone
Member
55 mph storm motion and DDC doesn't have their radar in SAILS mode...clowns
Tanner
Member
Good luck.
jiharris0220
Member
The qlcs behind the cell has areas of rotation all along its front. It would certainly be something if all tornadoes came from a squall than discrete cells from this event.
Tanner
Member
It would be very 2024.
jiharris0220
Member
Yea, the cell is kinda starting to defecate now. Not exactly sure why though, perhaps lower lapse rates to the east. So far the conditional threat has leaned towards the “nothing happens” side.
Wouldn’t be surprised to see the qlcs produce a surprise mini outbreak if the parameter space remains volatile.
TornadoFan
Member
Any chance that line to the west could become more discrete?
jiharris0220
Member
If it does, it won’t matter much.
Tanner
Member
Lapse rates and dry air entrainment are definitely the storm killers. It's trying to "procreate" right now. It's amazing how we're in mid April and talking about a seemingly rare plains setup having doodoo lapse rates.
jiharris0220
Member
Still too early to make a clear statement but this event went about as forecasted. Wind and hail verified to no one’s surprise, or care.
And the tornado threat thankfully will be nothing more than a forgotten memory. Of course this easily could’ve gone either way. The 10%hatched was the right call considering these circumstances, as it was merely a “just in case” risk.
And I agree with your assertion Tanner, it’s quite amazing how utter sh&t the lapse rates have been this year, it’s like the air simply doesn’t want to rise and cool.
And the tornado threat thankfully will be nothing more than a forgotten memory. Of course this easily could’ve gone either way. The 10%hatched was the right call considering these circumstances, as it was merely a “just in case” risk.
And I agree with your assertion Tanner, it’s quite amazing how utter sh&t the lapse rates have been this year, it’s like the air simply doesn’t want to rise and cool.
TornadoFan
Member
The latest HRRR almost wants to show an arc of supercells across Missouri and Iowa tomorrow.
jiharris0220
Member
I’m gonna play devils advocate and say I’m not impressed at all with tomorrow’s set up.
Barely semi discrete storm mode, numerous junk storms, and quite pathetic looking super cells.
I’ll be surprised to see a moderate risk come out of this, despite the moderately impressive kinematics.
Barely semi discrete storm mode, numerous junk storms, and quite pathetic looking super cells.
I’ll be surprised to see a moderate risk come out of this, despite the moderately impressive kinematics.
Tanner
Member
There's something that I don't understand. Or rather mets here may know. Why are low level lapse rates so low across much of the eastern US even here in mid April this year? It seems like a common trend with events this year. Looking back on the mesoscale analysis, even during mid-late afternoon hours, the LLLR's were still barely above 6 c/km.