Solar weather watches

[bjdeming]

"Professionally predicted" is the key phrase. Right now I'm following these sources plus NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center.

 

[bjdeming]

For instance, here is Skov's latest:

 

[bjdeming]

From SWPC: " A severe geomagnetic storm includes the potential for aurora to be seen as far south as Alabama and Northern California."

But read the whole thing. Also --

 

[bjdeming]

Meanwhile, Jupiter says "Hold my beer."

 

[bjdeming]

From SWPC today.

 

[bjdeming]

Half an hour ago:

 

[bjdeming]

And they keep coming, apparently (tweeted ten hours ago):

 

[bjdeming]

The scientists are excited.

[Dr Elizabeth️MacDonald on X: "Continuing on the technical terms, the main phase of this storm (according to the real-time Dst) is -231 nT. Nearly superstorm level (-250 nT) and not seen for *many* years I believe. https://t.co/UleK5ldSpA read more about red aurora here: https://t.co/6z6lLcCTK8 https://t.co/T6Qr1rcFFs" /

 

[bjdeming]

Wonder how our satellites and ISS are doing.

[Dr. Tamitha Skov on X: "Insane! #AuroraAustralis is visible as far north as Africa during this ongoing #solarstorm. This is truly a monumental event. Thanks for reporting!" /

 

[bjdeming]

Perspective:

[Austrian Space Weather Office, GeoSphere Austria on X: "There it is - 2024 May 10/11 is the strongest geomagnetic storm with -345 nT as measured by Dst since November 2004 at -374 nT. November 2003 would be - 422 nT. Behind this comes -589 nT in March 1989. https://t.co/cDQaFAhdvl" /

 

[bjdeming]

More perspective. I haven't seen much hysteria, fortunately, and what was in my Twitter feed had helpful community notes. Apparently it isn't the source region size that mstters but its energy release.

[Dr. Ryan French on X: "Whatever this weekend brings, it’s sure to be exciting! A G4 level could bring the northern lights to millions. But crucially: this event will be *significantly* weaker than the Carrington Event, and unlikely to exceed the 2003 Halloween solar storms." /

 

[bjdeming]

[EarthScope Consortium on X: "A 3D conductivity model of the U.S. generated from magnetotelluric array data can help to assess the regions where there may be a potential hazard to electrical infrastructure during the geomagnetic storm. https://t.co/X3WyBMXjGH" /

 

[bjdeming]

A few minutes ago:

[NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center on X: "Extreme (G5) geomagnetic conditions have been observed! https://t.co/qLsC8GbWus" /

 

[bjdeming]

Europe is lit up like a Christmas tree; the Alps are purple; orange lights over Namibia; just amazing.

From SWPC:

Space Weather Message Code: WARK07
Serial Number: 104
Issue Time: 2024 May 10 2348 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expected
Extension to Serial Number: 103
Valid From: 2024 May 10 1715 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 May 11 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

 

[bjdeming]

A few minutes ago. Sigh.

[Austrian Space Weather Office, GeoSphere Austria on X: "There is another intensification coming up as Earth is in a magnetic flux rope of one of the #solarstorms, with the field going from north to east to south and Bz is again -45 nT. At this stage it looks like it might even beat November 2003, its absolutely relentless. https://t.co/aa5TXQ3atv" /

 

[bjdeming]

The fat lady, bless her, is nowhere near the microphone yet...

[Dr. Tamitha Skov on X: "Don't worry. This is just the first round of several. Likely there will be more tonight. In addition, we just had a filament lift off the Sun while in the Earth-strike zone. This means we now have 9 #solarstorms in this train that have either arrived or are still on their way!"

 

[Clancy]

Beautiful sights all across the country and the world tonight. Can't see any myself due to light pollution where I live but in awe at all the wonderful pics rolling in.

 

[Equus]

Others across the state have seen far better, and missed the main show, but still pretty historic to get to see anything at all

 

[Jacob]

I sacrificed some sleep to see it here in Northern Utah and it didn’t disappoint. I moved my Wyze security camera to point at the northern sky and it showed the lights better than I expected.

It is brighter on camera than in person, but it was easily visible to the naked eye.

 

[bjdeming]

Gorgeous images! Here in Corvallis, around 4 a.m., despite light pollution, naked-eye observation shows what seems to be a white winding-sheet movement in the sky north of town that's usually dark at night.

And Saturday-night images from New Zealand show the aurora australis is still dancing.

Tweeted nine hours ago:

[Dr. Ryan French on X: "The second biggest #SolarFlare since 2017 (X5.9-class) currently happening on the Sun, whilst the strongest geomagnetic storm since 2003 continues on Earth. This is solar maximum, folks! Buckle up. #spaceweather https://t.co/MJk0JEjQUD" /