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...OK/TX/AR/LA...
Recent surface analysis placed a low near BVO (in northeast OK) with
a cold front extending southwestward across central OK to another
low southwest of SPS (in northwest TX). A dryline extends
south-southward from this second low through the Edwards Plateau.
Upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints precede this front from southeast OK
southward into the TX Hill Country.
Recent 18Z FWD sounding shows the capping in place at 12Z has eroded
amid a moistening boundary layer and modest 700-mb cooling. Low- to
mid-level flow has also strengthened during this period, increasing
to near 60 kt around 850-mb. This is in line with previous forecast
reasoning, with the warm-sector becoming very kinematically
supportive of supercells capable of tornadoes.
Thus far, modest thermodynamics appear to be the limiting factor.
However, large-scale forcing for ascent will continue to increase
while low-level moisture advection persists. Additional storm
development now appears underway across central TX as well as west
of the Metroplex.
The overall forecast remains the same. An initially discrete mode is
expected throughout the warm sector where very favorable low-level
and deep-layer shear profiles support updraft rotation and tornadoes
(including strong tornadoes).
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