Severe Weather Threat - May 6, 2024

[Shakespeare 2016]

Lordy lordy, I'll have to retire for the night. But areas south of OKC will have to continue to watch out as storms are still bubbling about down there. Hoping for as few casualties as possible in Barnsdall; watching the radar tonight was horrific.
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Have a goodnight!!!

 

[jiharris0220]

 

[TornadoFan17]

Couplet has really ramped up now. Not good.

Where?

 

[buckeye05]

Couplet has really ramped up now. Not good.

I’m not sure what you’re referring to.

 

[BayouWeatherGeek]

I’m not sure what you’re referring to.

I was referring to the OKC tornado on KWTV's livestream. Fortunately the circulation isn't as tight as it was earlier.

 

[Evan]

Don't look now but a little guy has formed near Ninnekah

 

[Tanner]

Seems like a more linear shear vector made storms congeal quickly. That's what I got out of this tweet.

 

[172556]

Embedded cell south of Tulsa is warned again.

 

[TornadoFan]

Those SW OK storms are all by themselves.

 

[buckeye05]

Those SW OK storms are all by themselves.

Eh, I wouldn’t say that. They're in line to congeal with other cells, which are currently outflow dominant. It may end up behind the outflow boundary soon. I’d be more concerned if that wasn’t the case.

Edit: nvm was looking at the wrong area. Still those don’t like they’re doing much.

 

[jiharris0220]

Honestly think I’m throwing the towel. This event in some ways underperformed and in others did exactly as forecasted.

I think what tempered the overall tornado threat was unfavorable critical angles. Which really just screwed over storm relative inflow and caused the majority of cells to simply bow out.

 

[jiharris0220]

So all in all, I think this event will definitely be taken in for academic studies. The next time when something like this happens, people will definitely pay more attention to what angle the surface winds are relative to storm motion.

 

[TH2002]

Honestly think I’m throwing the towel. This event in some ways underperformed and in others did exactly as forecasted.

I think what tempered the overall tornado threat was unfavorable critical angles. Which really just screwed over storm relative inflow and caused the majority of cells to simply bow out.

Agreed. I'll concede that this event had a much higher ceiling than what has ultimately panned out. But the fact that it underperformed, and yet even through that we still had a strong/violent tornado devastate a town really speaks volumes to how much more widespread this event could have been. S**t hit the fan in northeastern OK, but the rest of the risk area has stayed comparatively tame. It will be an interesting case study going forward.

 

[TornadoFan17]

I'm done for tonight too. I have too much going on tomorrow to stay up all night watching the weather. Hope the QLCS weakens as it passes through Missouri.

 

[Evan]

Storm-Net ML model basically threw in the towel for OK a little while ago as well. It actually was all over Barnsdall well in advance of it producing.

It's currently significantly more excited about the QLCS in Missouri than anywhere in Oklahoma. Guess that means it is bedtime for Bonzo.

 

[TH2002]

To be honest, if anything, this event was more or less a repeat of 5/20/19 as far as being an underperformer goes. The main difference this time around is that unlike Mangum from 2019, the most violent tornado of this event struck a town head on instead of attaining peak intensity over open fields. Literally the worst difference possible.

 

[Muwx]

So now it’s ok to throw in the towel?

 

[Evan]

So now it’s ok to throw in the towel?

Some of the very people you've hinted at having read on Twitter are people that a number of us here follow as well. At no point did I see any of them throw in the towel. What I witnessed was realtime discussion of underperformance and potential causes of failure. It was widely stated, and quite obvious, that until the final storms cleared the OKC metro and went almost completely linear that things weren't over.

There's a major difference in discussing potential failure modes, and reasons for why a system isn't yet achieving in a high potential parameter space, and completely dismissing storms moving into an extremely favorable parameter space. No idea how long you've been studying or interested in severe weather, but when it's been decades you learn the hard way not to dismiss threats before they've reached an adequate conclusion. Please don't ever chase because you're unlikely to have the patience or temperament for it.

 

[Muwx]

Some of the very people you've hinted at having read on Twitter are people that a number of us here follow as well. At no point did I see any of them throw in the towel. What I witnessed was realtime discussion of underperformance and potential causes of failure. It was widely stated, and quite obvious, that until the final storms cleared the OKC metro and went almost completely linear that things weren't over.

There's a major difference in discussing potential failure modes, and reasons for why a system isn't yet achieving in a high potential parameter space, and completely dismissing storms moving into an extremely favorable parameter space. No idea how long you've been studying or interested in severe weather, but when it's been decades you learn the hard way not to dismiss threats before they've reached an adequate conclusion. Please don't ever chase because you're unlikely to have the patience or temperament for it.

People at the SPC were tweeting that it was under performing 2-3 hours ago but it’s only a problem when I do it… lol make it make sense.

 

[TH2002]

People at the SPC were tweeting that it was under performing 2-3 hours ago but it’s only a problem when I do it… lol make it make sense.

Discussing failure modes and underperformance isn't a problem. Discussing it in a very disrespectful "I'm right, the SPC is wrong" way, is. Quit throwing a pity party. Sheesh...