- Thread starter
- #621
KevinH
Member
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT MON MAY 06 2024
VALID 062000Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...
..SUMMARY
A REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH MULTIPLE INTENSE (EF3+),
LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES, AS WELL AS VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM GUSTS, IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.
..20Z UPDATE
RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW OVER FAR SOUTHEAST MT, WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT ARCING SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE TRIPLE POINT NEAR FAR SOUTHWEST SD/FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NE PANHANDLE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THIS TRIPLE POINT ACROSS FAR EASTERN CO AND THEN BACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NM. A DRY LINE ALSO EXTENDS
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THIS TRIPLE POINT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NE BEFORE
ARCING BACK MORE SOUTHWARD/SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KS,
THE EASTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES, AND INTO TX TRANS-PECOS.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED QUICKLY ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL
NE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KS, AS WELL AS AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT IN
SOUTHWEST SD. GENERAL EXPECTATION OUTLINED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (APPENDED BELOW) REMAINS, WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. EVENTUAL
ORGANIZATION INTO MORE OF AN EASTWARD-PROGRESSING CONVECTIVE LINE IS ANTICIPATED, WITH THE RESULTING LINE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NE AND
NORTHERN KS. PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS LINE WILL BE SEVERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH. SOME LINE-EMBEDDED QLCS TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY AS THE LINE ENTERS SOUTHEAST NE AND NORTHEAST KS LATER
THIS EVENING AMID A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. STP VALUES FROM 3
TO 5 APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS AHEAD OF THE LINE THIS EVENING.
FARTHER SOUTH (FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS INTO MOST OF OK), THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. UPPER 60S ARE NOW APPROACHING THE KS/OK BORDER, WITH LOW 70S DEWPOINTS NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL OK. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW RELATIVELY LIMITED VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OK, WITH SOME STABLE UNDULATIONS NOTED AS WELL, BOTH OF WHICH ARE INDICATIVE OF A CAPPED AIRMASS. THIS IS VERIFIED BY THE 18Z OUN SOUNDING, WHICH SHOWED THAT NOTABLE CAPPING REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS
CAPPING IS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN ESTIMATED BY THE 12Z GUIDANCE. EVEN SO, DEEPENING CUMULUS HAS BEEN NOTED ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN TX/OK PANHANDLE, AND RECENT INITIATION HAS OCCURRED IN SOUTHWEST KS, BOTH OF WHICH SUGGEST INITIATION OF ADDITIONAL STORMS FARTHER SOUTH IS PROBABLE AROUND 20 TO 22Z.
OVERALL SCENARIO FOR A POTENTIALLY VOLATILE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
REMAINS FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL KS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL OK. AN
ISOLATED STORM COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN FAR NORTHWEST TX. SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE STILL EXPECTED, WITH THE
ENVIRONMENT BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE WITH TIME AND EASTERN EXTENT.
ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE STP VALUES AROUND 10 ARE LIKELY
IN THE 00 TO 06Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OK. GIANT HAIL
UP TO 4" IN DIAMETER, SEVERE GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH, AND LONG-TRACK, INTENSE TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE. PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION
(PDS) TORNADO WATCH #189 WAS RECENTLY ISSUED TO COVER THIS THREAT.
..MOSIER.. 05/06/2024
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT MON MAY 06 2024
VALID 062000Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...
..SUMMARY
A REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH MULTIPLE INTENSE (EF3+),
LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES, AS WELL AS VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM GUSTS, IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.
..20Z UPDATE
RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW OVER FAR SOUTHEAST MT, WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT ARCING SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE TRIPLE POINT NEAR FAR SOUTHWEST SD/FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NE PANHANDLE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THIS TRIPLE POINT ACROSS FAR EASTERN CO AND THEN BACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NM. A DRY LINE ALSO EXTENDS
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THIS TRIPLE POINT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NE BEFORE
ARCING BACK MORE SOUTHWARD/SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KS,
THE EASTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES, AND INTO TX TRANS-PECOS.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED QUICKLY ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL
NE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KS, AS WELL AS AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT IN
SOUTHWEST SD. GENERAL EXPECTATION OUTLINED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (APPENDED BELOW) REMAINS, WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. EVENTUAL
ORGANIZATION INTO MORE OF AN EASTWARD-PROGRESSING CONVECTIVE LINE IS ANTICIPATED, WITH THE RESULTING LINE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NE AND
NORTHERN KS. PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS LINE WILL BE SEVERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH. SOME LINE-EMBEDDED QLCS TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY AS THE LINE ENTERS SOUTHEAST NE AND NORTHEAST KS LATER
THIS EVENING AMID A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. STP VALUES FROM 3
TO 5 APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS AHEAD OF THE LINE THIS EVENING.
FARTHER SOUTH (FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS INTO MOST OF OK), THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. UPPER 60S ARE NOW APPROACHING THE KS/OK BORDER, WITH LOW 70S DEWPOINTS NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL OK. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW RELATIVELY LIMITED VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OK, WITH SOME STABLE UNDULATIONS NOTED AS WELL, BOTH OF WHICH ARE INDICATIVE OF A CAPPED AIRMASS. THIS IS VERIFIED BY THE 18Z OUN SOUNDING, WHICH SHOWED THAT NOTABLE CAPPING REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS
CAPPING IS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN ESTIMATED BY THE 12Z GUIDANCE. EVEN SO, DEEPENING CUMULUS HAS BEEN NOTED ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN TX/OK PANHANDLE, AND RECENT INITIATION HAS OCCURRED IN SOUTHWEST KS, BOTH OF WHICH SUGGEST INITIATION OF ADDITIONAL STORMS FARTHER SOUTH IS PROBABLE AROUND 20 TO 22Z.
OVERALL SCENARIO FOR A POTENTIALLY VOLATILE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
REMAINS FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL KS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL OK. AN
ISOLATED STORM COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN FAR NORTHWEST TX. SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE STILL EXPECTED, WITH THE
ENVIRONMENT BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE WITH TIME AND EASTERN EXTENT.
ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE STP VALUES AROUND 10 ARE LIKELY
IN THE 00 TO 06Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OK. GIANT HAIL
UP TO 4" IN DIAMETER, SEVERE GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH, AND LONG-TRACK, INTENSE TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE. PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION
(PDS) TORNADO WATCH #189 WAS RECENTLY ISSUED TO COVER THIS THREAT.
..MOSIER.. 05/06/2024
Last edited:
