TornadoFan17
Member
So what are the potential limiting factors, if any, that are present with this setup for tonight?
Cap is stout, and Oklahoma can be famous for its blue sky busts, but as the temps rises and moisture advects northward it should erode. I don’t think Cap is going to keep this one held back. Just something to keep in mind and I’d defer to Andy or Fred on that oneSo what are the potential limiting factors, if any, that are present with this setup for tonight?
The main question now is how many storms fire in the peak parameter space. A lot of the CAMs haven’t shown a ton of convection especially south of OKC but I’m not sure that’s actually realistic. Other than that, not much. There’s a reason they issued a high risk; this isn’t a conditional threat, it’s just a matter of resolving the mesoscale details.So what are the potential limiting factors, if any, that are present with this setup for tonight?
This is what OUN posted in chat. Cap is largely gone.Cap is stout, and Oklahoma can be famous for its blue sky busts, but as the temps rises and moisture advects northward it should erode. I don’t think Cap is going to keep this one held back. Just something to keep in mind and I’d defer to Andy or Fred on that one
Thanks for sharing that
Yeah that wasn’t the issue, it was the contradiction between what OUN was saying and what the sounding analysis showed right nowEarlier in this thread it was confirmed that the cap is not going to inhibit this.
Yeah this seems like the most likely scenario (and it’s what most of the CAMs have been depicting). Also why I don’t think a 45% upgrade is necessary since the expected amount of storm coverage probably doesn’t justify it.Probably won't be all that many cells developing in the high risk which is kind of the problem, things should be pretty widely spaced with lots of room for just a handful of supercells dropping long tracked tornadoes; getting the balance right is tricky but if the cap is largely gone in weak forcing, could hit the sweet spot for just a few intense updrafts especially if mesoscale factors and 850mb temps cooperate