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Severe Weather Threat - May 6, 2024

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The 12z HREF probability of tornado within 25 miles is just out. I have overlayed the 13z SPC outlook -- they might consider expanding it north and east in the coming updates.


1715008828956.png
 
rushdude said:
Honestly, I want this to be a bust. Oklahoma just had EF4 a couple weeks ago.
I also hate how there's a couple of political weenies and a growing number of possible bots muddying up the #okwx hashtag. :(
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Not sure what can make this a complete bust honestly. No fires, no exceptional stout cap(that I know of) seems like we’re going to have a long waiting game to see what truly happens.
 
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Brice W said:
Not sure what can make this a complete bust honestly. No fires, no exceptional stout cap(that I know of) seems like we’re going to have a long waiting game to see what truly happens,
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Have heard several folks say similar things, that while there are certainly some things that could limit some of the intensity, a lot of the typical failure modes just aren't there like they are for most setups.
 
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Clancy said:
Have heard several folks say similar things, that while there are certainly some things that could limit some of the intensity, a lot of the typical failure modes just aren't there like they are for most setups.
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Agreed, also seeing models going towards a more semi discrete mode for KS, recipe for disaster seems to be building without any big limit.
 
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Maxis_s said:
View attachment 26395
Latest HRRR (14z) is showing discrete development across the dryline in Oklahoma, with a semi-discrete mode maintaining itself for some time in central/north Kansas, with some attempts at OWS development. Not a good look.
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Looks like it also depicts these storms congealing into a line fairly quickly, however. The discrete convection shown here on the 14z run would pose an initial threat for tornadoes, but it's worth noting that the low-level shear & low-level SRH are currently depicted to be significantly lower here compared to areas eastward towards OKC. As the line moves eastward on the 14z run, it runs into the consistently-modeled eye-popping environment (one that is ripe with spin). A sustainable tail-end charlie would be a serious concern in this scenario.

That said, this is one model solution. The 15z suite may come in looking similar or different, but at this point with the hours continuing to tick down, I would start to transition more towards observations and less towards hourly model output.
 
One concern I've got is the sort of west-to-east supercell trail that forms on the southern end of the convection, as modelled by HRRR, and to a lesser extent, some of the other CAMs. If that were to occur, you could end up with a situation a bit like that Marietta-Sulphur tornado corridor we had a few weeks ago, except it'll be smack-dab in the middle of the OKC metro instead.
floop-hrrr-2024050614.refcmp_uh001h.us_c.gif
 
I rode a rollercoaster a lot like this pattern at Six Flags over Georgia... Déjà vu


Maxis_s said:
View attachment 26395
Latest HRRR (14z) is showing discrete development across the dryline in Oklahoma, with a semi-discrete mode maintaining itself for some time in central/north Kansas, with some attempts at OWS development. Not a good look.
Click to expand...
 
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Snippet from a discussion just posted by OUN, they expect supercells throughout the event.

EVERY storm will be equally capable of producing dangerous tornadoes and destructive hail. Many (most?) people will NOT see any storms at all! We are only expecting a small number of storms. We could have 2-3, we could have 10. The thing to remember is if you see a storm near you, assume it's a dangerous storm. We have not experienced a day like this in quite some time. We expect storms to become supercells quickly after they form, and they should remain supercells through the event. We do not expect them to form into a squall line or cluster. The potential for tornadoes will INCREASE after dark, so do not let your guard down. Wind shear - which is already plenty for tornadoes this afternoon - will only become more favorable after dark. This is important! Clouds will NOT prevent storms from forming today or lessen their severity. The cap (a layer of warm air above the surface) will NOT prevent storms from forming today.
 
SmokeEater said:
Snippet from a discussion just posted by OUN, they expect supercells throughout the event.

EVERY storm will be equally capable of producing dangerous tornadoes and destructive hail. Many (most?) people will NOT see any storms at all! We are only expecting a small number of storms. We could have 2-3, we could have 10. The thing to remember is if you see a storm near you, assume it's a dangerous storm. We have not experienced a day like this in quite some time. We expect storms to become supercells quickly after they form, and they should remain supercells through the event. We do not expect them to form into a squall line or cluster. The potential for tornadoes will INCREASE after dark, so do not let your guard down. Wind shear - which is already plenty for tornadoes this afternoon - will only become more favorable after dark. This is important! Clouds will NOT prevent storms from forming today or lessen their severity. The cap (a layer of warm air above the surface) will NOT prevent storms from forming today.
Click to expand...
Geez, they're not holding back.
 
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