Severe Weather Threat - May 6, 2024

[buckeye05]

March 31 was the Little Rock/Keota/Wynn/Robinson outbreak, which was still a really bad one obviously. Huge too.

 

[warneagle]

March 31 was the Little Rock/Keota/Wynn/Robinson outbreak, which was still a really bad one obviously. Huge too.

Top 10 all time in confirmed tornadoes so yeah I’d say so

 

[Maxis_s]

That's an insane uptrend.

 

[wx_guy]

So I just *randomly* picked one location/point inside a large area of maxed-out STP on the color scale in central Oklahoma from the 13z HRRR. The STP (CIN) -- which is what the SARS analogs and bar plots use, is almost 14. To put that in perspective, there's only 3 soundings out of nearly 1900 in the SARS analog databased with a higher STP (and if it goes much higher, it'll eclipse even those). So we are in increasingly rarified air if these forecasts verify...

 

[Maxis_s]

So I just *randomly* picked one location/point inside a large area of maxed-out STP on the color scale in central Oklahoma from the 13z HRRR. The STP (CIN) -- which is what the SARS analogs and bar plots use, is almost 14. To put that in perspective, there's only 3 soundings out of nearly 1900 in the SARS analog databased with a higher STP (and if it goes much higher, it'll eclipse even those). So we are in increasingly rarified air if these forecasts verify...

View attachment 26389

A lot of areas even exceed STP 14, going as much as up to 25, although only cherry-picked soundings are going past 20. Still incredible.

 

[TornadoFan]

OKC is already showing 68/66.

 

[warneagle]

Yeah this kind of environment at 10 pm is really worrisome (especially since the LLJ will still be increasing and the window for supercells will still be open for a few hours).

 

[warneagle]

So I just *randomly* picked one location/point inside a large area of maxed-out STP on the color scale in central Oklahoma from the 13z HRRR. The STP (CIN) -- which is what the SARS analogs and bar plots use, is almost 14. To put that in perspective, there's only 3 soundings out of nearly 1900 in the SARS analog databased with a higher STP (and if it goes much higher, it'll eclipse even those). So we are in increasingly rarified air if these forecasts verify...

View attachment 26389

Man, if you gave me a pencil and said “draw me a skew-T and a hodograph for a violent tornado” I might not draw something that good.

 

[Clancy]

Important note as we discuss today's event. While obviously a lot of concern regards supercellular activity, in environments like these, QLCS tors can be just as dangerous, especially after dark.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

There'll be a WX Twitter bust party at about 1:30 PM, and tornadoes once the caffeine-fueled go to bed thinking the threat is over.

No kidding. I can already hear a couple of people specifically in this thread that'll be calling a bust prematurely lol

 

[Brice W]

No kidding. I can already hear a couple of people specifically in this thread that'll be calling a bust prematurely lol

Shhhhh… don’t summon them.

 

[warneagle]

Important note as we discuss today's event. While obviously a lot of concern regards supercellular activity, in environments like these, QLCS tors can be just as dangerous, especially after dark.

I wonder if they might consider expanding the MDT north/east a bit to potentially account for some of the QLCS tornado risk.

 

[Clancy]

Some experimental product forecasts for this evening, fwiw. Some of the highest values off these products I can recall in both cases. Very high values off the SREF as well.

 

[Clancy]

I wonder if they might consider expanding the MDT north/east a bit to potentially account for some of the QLCS tornado risk.

Certainly wouldn't be surprised, it could be a very potent event in that area, between winds and tornadoes.

 

[Brice W]

RRFS wants to do some funky stuff, looks to have more of a discrete mode at the 24th and 25th hour

 

[Brice W]

How long should the storms in Kansas stay discrete? Still learning, I’m sure yall have more resources than me lol.

 

[Maxis_s]

Is it showing what I think it's showing...?

 

[jiharris0220]

View attachment 26394
Is it showing what I think it's showing...?

I was literally a plank instant away from posting that, but yes, not a good trend.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Brice W]

I was literally a plank instant away from posting that, but yes, not a good trend.

Yeah, may need an extension of the MDT to the Northeast or to even Northern KS.