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It’s not a conservative forecast, but I’m saying it’s conservative considering the environment due to over clustering of convection.My apologies, I meant 15% but the fingers typed something else. My point still remains. This isn’t a conservative forecast, it is balanced against all factors. It’s actually an excellent forecast for 13z. There are still some initial unknowns, but multiple tornadic supercells appear probable, some producing significant tornado families, potentially modulated by storm mode toward evening.
Haven't seen one since I first started using it, that I can remember.When was the last time a 90% occur on CWASP?
Well, thats not good.The EML being stronger than expected has basically nuked the possibility of morning convection limiting instability for today.
The only convection to be seen are weak scattered showers that aren’t even located in the warm sector.
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Wes has a strict process to verify met status in order to maintain the integrity of the met tag. I've alerted him and he'll see this as well in order to get that ball rolling. I look forward to seeing Andy with the tag.Trying to figure out how to do that. I don't think I have the ability. @WesL ??
Not goodIt's 11am EDT..for reference.
Yeah, I was just thinking that. Yesterday went crazy early. Ominous sign.Whenever storms start producing significant hazards (most notably tornadoes) this EARLY into the day, you almost know it's going to be a long day. Yesterday did the same thing with the early storms in Texas and Nebraska.