Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28, 2024 - (Saturday, Sunday)

[tornado examiner]

Okay yeah…today is possibly gonna go high risk…maaaybe.

 

[Muwx]

 

[NorthGaWeather]

That sounding from OUN speaks loud about the potential today.

 

[wx_guy]

For the 12z in Oklahoma to be so potent so early in the day, this thing has a very high ceiling...

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[tornado examiner]

How are we feeling about morning convection?

 

[jiharris0220]

View attachment 25790

When was the last time a 90% occur on CWASP?

 

[tornado examiner]

No high risk yet…

 

[A Guy]

 

[jiharris0220]

Reading the discussion, they really expect storm mode to be a significant limiting factor.

 

[MichelleH]

When was the last time a 90% occur on CWASP?

Maybe 13 years ago today? Not sure.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

Reading the discussion, they really expect storm mode to be a significant limiting factor.

I disagree to an extent. You don’t have a 15% hatched TOR MDT if storm mode is a significant factor. All Rich and John are saying is that a semi-discrete mode will be the rule today, much like yesterday. There are some concerns about discrete/semi-discrete mode persisting into the early evening though. Central Oklahoma should see at least one and maybe multiple rounds of tornadic supercells.

 

[Tanner]

When was the last time a 90% occur on CWASP?

I cannot bring myself to a memory.

 

[jiharris0220]

I disagree to an extent. You don’t have a 30% hatched TOR MDT if storm mode is a significant factor. All Rich and John are saying is that a semi-discrete mode will be the rule today, much like yesterday. There are some concerns about discrete/semi-discrete mode persisting into the early evening though. Central Oklahoma should see at least one and maybe multiple rounds of tornadic supercells.

They have a 15% hatched TOR MDT. Which is quite conservative for the environment, (understandably so) I wouldn’t be surprised if they went higher later on today if trends point to more discrete.

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

I disagree to an extent. You don’t have a 30% hatched TOR MDT if storm mode is a significant factor. All Rich and John are saying is that a semi-discrete mode will be the rule today, much like yesterday. There are some concerns about discrete/semi-discrete mode persisting into the early evening though. Central Oklahoma should see at least one and maybe multiple rounds of tornadic supercells.

This may be a tad off topic for this thread but relevant at hand… storm mode was messy in spots yesterday, but the storms still produced and had no trouble lasting for hours. I know a linear like mode can be a death sentence sometimes for storms, but they thrived yesterday in that mode.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

They have a 15% hatched TOR MDT. Which is quite conservative for the environment, (understandably so) although o wouldn’t be surprised if they went higher later on today if trends point to more discrete.
View attachment 25795

My apologies, I meant 15% but the fingers typed something else. My point still remains. This isn’t a conservative forecast, it is balanced against all factors. It’s actually an excellent forecast for 13z. There are still some initial unknowns, but multiple tornadic supercells appear probable, some producing significant tornado families, potentially modulated by storm mode toward evening.

 

[notsoencrypted]

Am I in the Moderate Risk area? I can't tell but it looks like I may be just outside of it or on the line of it.

If you go to pivotal weather, they have versions of the SPC risk map that are more zoomed in and have counties marked. The SPC also has a version with counties, but I don't remember exactly how to access it and am on mobile, so linking is a pain.

 

[warneagle]

Hoo boy, that gun is locked and loaded

 

[wx_guy]

Here's a snippet sounding from the 12z HRRR in Oklahoma this evening. Not cherry-picked either, there's numerous such locations over the evening hours. Nearly perfectly curved low-level hodographs, ~3000 SBCAPE, nearly 100,000 SigSvr parameter (which I don't think I've ever seen before), 1149 DCAPE, 7.4 C/km 700-500 Lapse Rate, a super high 26 on the SCP, and STP fix and STP cin between 6 and 9...those are some of the highest readings I've seen on soundings in recent memory. I think this evening from maybe 4 PM CDT to midnight or so, it could be a very rough time in Oklahoma and surrounding areas.

 

[warneagle]

Here's a snippet sounding from the 12z HRRR in Oklahoma this evening. Not cherry-picked either, there's numerous such locations over the evening hours. Nearly perfectly curved low-level hodographs, ~3000 SBCAPE, nearly 100,000 SigSvr parameter (which I don't think I've ever seen before), 1149 DCAPE, 7.4 C/km 700-500 Lapse Rate, a super high 26 on the SCP, and STP fix and STP cin between 6 and 9...those are some of the highest readings I've seen on soundings in recent memory. I think this evening from maybe 4 PM CDT to midnight or so, it could be a very rough time in Oklahoma and surrounding areas.

Lot of connective feedback on that sounding so I wouldn’t take it at face value.