rolltide_130
Member
Well even the GFS is showing a potentially dangerous setup for us Tuesday now...
This one might actually take off.
This one might actually take off.
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Verbatim GFS instability is not impressive, probably would be a modest event similar to yesterday-today with those values.
A significant trough will begin to take shape across the Plains on
Monday, and the ejection of one or more lead waves may encourage the
warm front to move northward Monday night into Tuesday. Run-to-run
consistency with this system remains poor, but a quality warm sector
may become established across Alabama by Tuesday morning. While
instability could become sufficient for thunderstorms, currently the
strongest dynamics and height falls appear to remain to our
northwest as the trough becomes negatively tilted on Tuesday. If
that trend continues, any potential for severe storms would be
rather limited. At this time, confidence is too low for any mention
in the HWO. A cold frontal passage is expected on Tuesday into
Tuesday night with widespread rainfall and cooler and drier
conditions for Wednesday.
87/Grantham
The bigger system of note is Thursday. A lot hinges on moisture return which may not be sufficient but that’s some nasty shear profiles.
The amount of jet energy the globals show traversing the United States over the next two weeks is pretty wild! How significant, and exactly where these severe weather events occur appear to be highly uncertain at this point, but I suspect there will be many threats with a lot of potential for them to be bad. I would not write with much confidence about Tuesday's threat yet. Some model indications have been more significant than others.