Kory
Member
Looks like instability is minimal outside of the Gulf Coast. Otherwise, that’s a pattern that would favor severe.
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Models have pulled a 180. Euro is back to a problematic solution for Tuesday.
Much better instability with a roaring low level jet, rapidly deepening surface low, and WSW 500mb flow means supercells and likely a tornado threat verbatim.Please tell us more.
Much better instability with a roaring low level jet, rapidly deepening surface low, and WSW 500mb flow means supercells and likely a tornado threat verbatim.
Yeah the 12z GFS remains unimpressed with it.The 12z op run of the EURO is an outlier, and its control along with other model ops, ensembles, and trends have significantly degraded the severe threat.
The signal is there in the 12z EPS. Due to the relatively low amplitude nature of the trough, it will be smoothed out in the mean. A look like this is problematic should sufficient moisture/instability materialize. Also note how far south the 570 dam contour is here.The 12z op run of the EURO is an outlier, and its control along with other model ops, ensembles, and trends have significantly degraded the severe threat.
Kind of up in the air at this point. I get the feeling the first system might be a bit too starved of moisture to be a more substantial threat. There have been some hints at a very large trough developing in the west for Thanksgiving weekend though, 12z Euro shows this nicely (with moisture available).What region are we talking about?