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Severe Weather 2018

This severe weather season will be?

  • Above Average

    Votes: 7 31.8%

  • Average

    Votes: 13 59.1%

  • Below Average

    Votes: 2 9.1%
  • Total voters
    22
  • Poll closed .
We're just a few weeks out from derecho season and I'm honestly looking forward to it. I got some outstanding photos of one that rolled through last year while visiting my family's cottage. I've actually been missing seeing those bow echoes on radar!
 
Mentally, I’m transitioning to tropical season now which some indications may begin early this season. When I have time to look at the guidance I’ll post more in the tropical thread.
 
Kory said:
Mentally, I’m transitioning to tropical season now which some indications may begin early this season. When I have time to look at the guidance I’ll post more in the tropical thread.
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Indeed it does look like the tropical season may overshadow all the other severe weather modes this calendar year.
 
Yeah Dixie looks to be done until cool season comes calling again. The omnious pattern didn't verify by any stretch, but that isn't particularly a bad thing.
 
Already seeing NW flow overnight MCS systems here in North AL. Currently a good lightning show off to the north with starry skies and the only clouds being the anvils of the storms that the lightning occasionally illuminates.

Looks like MCS season (and summer) is arriving early this year. Hope everyone enjoyed their 2 weeks of spring.
 
rolltide_130 said:
Already seeing NW flow overnight MCS systems here in North AL. Currently a good lightning show off to the north with starry skies and the only clouds being the anvils of the storms that the lightning occasionally illuminates.

Looks like MCS season (and summer) is arriving early this year. Hope everyone enjoyed their 2 weeks of spring.
Click to expand...
LOL.. And so goes spring in the south! I just watched the local weather and seen upper 80s for me this week! Sorry...gotta say it! Come on October!!!
 
yeah its snooze time now for me on severe... pool time and yard work... hopefully we can get into a decent fall threat... but they have been pretty much non existent lately also.... dont know what it takes anymore to get into a good severe season....
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
yeah its snooze time now for me on severe... pool time and yard work... hopefully we can get into a decent fall threat... but they have been pretty much non existent lately also.... dont know what it takes anymore to get into a good severe season....
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Um just last year, we had the second most active January and one of the most active Jan/Feb/March in recent history.
 
I'll just say it's still early May. On June 15, a lot of people had written the 2014 severe season off as a complete bust. Four days later it had become one of the most memorable seasons in recent history. It's been said before, but all it takes is one event to make or break a season. In my opinion last year's season would also have been pretty boring without February 28, May 18, and June 12.
 
Kory said:
Um just last year, we had the second most active January and one of the most active Jan/Feb/March in recent history.
Click to expand...

The chasers tend to toss 2017 because it wasn't a good "chase" year, but it was actually a pretty solid year for Dixie starting as far back as November 2016.

SilentShadow87 said:
I'll just say it's still early May. On June 15, a lot of people had written the 2014 severe season off as a complete bust. Four days later it had become one of the most memorable seasons in recent history. It's been said before, but all it takes is one event to make or break a season. In my opinion last year's season would also have been pretty boring without February 28, May 18, and June 12.
Click to expand...

You can say that 2011 would have been boring without April 14-16, April 27, and May 24 though. Every year has a few highlight days and the rest aren't really remarkable.
 
On one of the other forums, someone posted a chart of the last ~10 years broken down by SPC "severe weather event" days per month. April 2011, surprisingly, had only the second highest number of event days among the Aprils (although personally I think the 27th should count for 3 or 4) and the year had the fewest total event days overall other than this year, which obviously has a long way to go.

Still though, the pattern of sustained AOA climo severe activity that was observed throughout that month is something that really hasn't been seen since. We've otherwise been in a base state of a hostile pattern for central-eastern CONUS severe activity (warm/ridge west, cool/trough east); during "prime" season, with a few days here and there that break the mold but may or may not produce a quality tornadic storm (and even when they do, it's usually just one storm with any expected high-ceiling outbreaks failing to verify as such).
 
We have an enhanced risk up here tomorrow. I wonder if anyone is desperate enough to try to chase in Maryland/Pennsylvania. I hope not.
 
Been talking to the guys from Stormtrack...if I say they're frustrated I'm making a massive understatement. The good news is we may actually see a better setup in the next week or two with forecast cap and moisture extent looking more favorable.

warneagle said:
We have an enhanced risk up here tomorrow. I wonder if anyone is desperate enough to try to chase in Maryland/Pennsylvania. I hope not.
Click to expand...
La Plata syndrome intensifies.
 
interesting risk area
 

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