rolltide_130
Member
Looking increasingly likely that a significant threat could be in play for areas just to our west on Saturday. Thread will be going up shortly..
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Severe Weather 2018
- Thread starter Taylor Campbell
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- #42
Kory
Member
Don't sleep on next week either. We just need to get through this weekend first and then that'll be the primary focus.
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- #44
What part of next week? Any details? Thanks!
NorthGADawg
Member
First week of March.
Kory
Member
Wednesday into Thursday.
- Thread starter
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- #47
I agree! It has potential to be very interesting!
NWMSGuy
Member
Hows the Saturday system looking on the 12Z runs?
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- #49
There's a new thread about Saturday's event.
Kory
Member
Euro continues to show some mischief for next Thursday in MS/AL/GA. More details as it gets closer...
Kory
Member
Yikes....
- Moderator
- #52
Kory
Member
Euro control/ensembles, UKMET, and GFS are all nasty for next Wednesday/Thursday.
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- #54
Yeesh...just hope it's not one of these middle of the night things again. But, it probably will be.
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- #55
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Eesh. We do seem to like our Wednesday storms around here.
CheeselandSkies
Member
500mb looks downright dangerous on the 12z and 18z GFS valid for 0z Thursday. Moisture is once again seasonably impressive but not much CAPE showing. Might be an issue with lapse rates again.
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SilentShadow87
Member
I don't know what it is with MS/AL and Wednesday events, and I might just be biased after a long severe drought, but I'm eyeballing this one. Like Cheesland said, the main caveat seems to be limited CAPE at the moment.
The 00Z Euro tonight initialized SBCAPE wholesale across the entire warm sector a solid 600-1000+ j/kg too low compared to the 00Z balloon soundings. That means it couldn't even correctly regurgitate what it ingested from the balloon data at 00 hrs. The 12 hr SBCAPE forecast for 00Z tonight from back on the 12Z run was even further off, and it's been wrong for days about this, over and over, run after run. Now, there's another system coming mid week (with a more favorable setup than this one for low-level moisture advection and mid-level EML advection), and the Euro is squashing its instability too, for the same INCORRECT reasons that it had low to no instability in the warm sector of this killer tornado event... and I'm supposed to just magically believe it? Nope, no thanks...
EDIT: And running trends in the NAM and GFS for the past few days, they have been consistently 5+ (in some cases 7+) degrees too low on dewpoints across the warm sector for tonight (and some of the runs have only gotten worse in comparison to reality, the closer we have gotten)...
EDIT: And running trends in the NAM and GFS for the past few days, they have been consistently 5+ (in some cases 7+) degrees too low on dewpoints across the warm sector for tonight (and some of the runs have only gotten worse in comparison to reality, the closer we have gotten)...
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CheeselandSkies
Member
Good analysis, Fred. I'm used to expecting the models to be over-bullish on CAPE, especially when they start showing 3,000+ j/kg for early season events, but perhaps their biases have changed? I wonder what the reason for this is?
