KevinH
Member
This reminds me of what @JPWX said about this set up being sneaky. sigh13z update hints at (some) possibility of later upgrade to ENH in the South today, if uncertainties can be removed:
Thunderstorms in the expanding warm sector, and along the front,
should pose a risk for a few tornadoes, along with large hail and
severe gusts, this afternoon into tonight. The main uncertainty at
this time is coverage, and by which preferred mechanism the greatest
lift will occur (related concepts). Warm-frontal passage and
diurnal heating will combine to destabilize the airmass inland from
southwest-northeast today, with upper 60s to mid 70s F surface
dewpoints. This will yield MLCAPE in the 2000-3500 J/kg range,
beneath 45-60 kt effective-shear magnitudes, once surface-based
parcels are attained. A more-focused area of severe potential may
develop within the lengthy corridor outlooked, particularly near the
inland-shifting baroclinic zone where low-level shear should be
maximized. However, mesoscale uncertainties are still too large to
introduce greater unconditional severe probabilities at this time.
Time to turn on alerts.