Severe Thread: 5/13-17

[CheeselandSkies]

We had a tornado warning in the Milwaukee area earlier; guessing as that vigorous cell that fired just east of me encountered some sort of lake-influenced boundary. Velocity did not look too impressive when I peeked at it, though and I haven't heard of any reports coming of it.

 

[TornadoFan]

Houston just got hammered.

 

[TornadoFan]

Windows blown out in downtown Houston.

 

[andyhb]

The aftermath in Houston right now legitimately reminds me of Hurricane Ike there. That was no ordinary damaging wind event that basically bullseyed the metro.

 

[Bevo]

The aftermath in Houston right now legitimately reminds me of Hurricane Ike there. That was no ordinary damaging wind event that basically bullseyed the metro.

Interesting that you mention that — I just saw this:



Estimated to have 1/3rd of the county without power…with temps supposed to spike this weekend, I hope it can be restored quickly or cooling centers opened up in spaces that do have power.

 

[Clancy]

SREF boomeranged and shows a very potent environment, with associated convection, across parts of MS, AL and GA tomorrow afternoon evening.

 

[JPWX]

SREF boomeranged and shows a very potent environment, with associated convection, across parts of MS, AL and GA tomorrow afternoon evening.
View attachment 27175View attachment 27176

Yeah, MCS or not, I wouldn't write off the areas away from the Gulf Coast tomorrow.

 

[Clancy]

Yeah, MCS or not, I wouldn't write off the areas away from the Gulf Coast tomorrow.

Really befuddling how bookended models have been with regard to convective evolution, they've been showing either a nothing-burger for anywhere away from the Gulf Coast or a potentially nasty setup across much of the South and going from one to the other almost every run.

 

[Maxis_s]

Really befuddling how bookended models have been with regard to convective evolution, they've been showing either a nothing-burger for anywhere away from the Gulf Coast or a potentially nasty setup across much of the South and going from one to the other almost every run.

My guess is that Nebraska will have another 260mph EF1

 

[warneagle]

The aftermath in Houston right now legitimately reminds me of Hurricane Ike there. That was no ordinary damaging wind event that basically bullseyed the metro.

A friend from my golf group lives down there now and said his family told him it sounded like a tornado and the ground was shaking etc. Thankfully they’re okay

 

[KevinH]

SREF boomeranged and shows a very potent environment, with associated convection, across parts of MS, AL and GA tomorrow afternoon evening.
View attachment 27175View attachment 27176

Yeah we’ll see what this says tomorrow morning…

 

[JPWX]

Tomorrow's threat is one of those that can catch you off guard at last minute

 

[Maxis_s]

Models have been so inconsistent for this event that I've just given up looking at them, lol

 

[KevinH]

Tomorrow's threat is one of those that can catch you off guard at last minute

Not a fan of that… interested to see what happens in AL all day

 

[JPWX]

Not a fan of that… interested to see what happens in AL all day

Reason I say that is because I've seen/witnessed too many events that don't look like much turn into a bigger deal the day of.

 

[KevinH]

Reason I say that is because I've seen/witnessed too many events that don't look like much turn into a bigger deal the day of.

I can’t recall exact dates, but I have faint memories of those kinds of events too.

 

[Kds86z]

At least 4 dead in Houston as severe weather slams area, city confirms

City officials said at least four people were killed as severe weather slammed Southeast Texas on Thursday.

www.khou.com

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[KevinH]

Don’t think I didn’t notice this little uptick

 

[wx_guy]

13z update hints at (some) possibility of later upgrade to ENH in the South today, if uncertainties can be removed:

Thunderstorms in the expanding warm sector, and along the front,
should pose a risk for a few tornadoes, along with large hail and
severe gusts, this afternoon into tonight. The main uncertainty at
this time is coverage, and by which preferred mechanism the greatest
lift will occur (related concepts). Warm-frontal passage and
diurnal heating will combine to destabilize the airmass inland from
southwest-northeast today, with upper 60s to mid 70s F surface
dewpoints. This will yield MLCAPE in the 2000-3500 J/kg range,
beneath 45-60 kt effective-shear magnitudes, once surface-based
parcels are attained. A more-focused area of severe potential may
develop within the lengthy corridor outlooked, particularly near the
inland-shifting baroclinic zone where low-level shear should be
maximized. However, mesoscale uncertainties are still too large to
introduce greater unconditional severe probabilities at this time.