Kory
Member
Poor instability looks like the driver for this.SPC dropped the enhanced risk for today in the latest Day 1 Outlook.
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Poor instability looks like the driver for this.SPC dropped the enhanced risk for today in the latest Day 1 Outlook.
I agree. I have sat here staring at it for the last minute or so, completely mesmerized. You can just imagine the strong winds filling in behind the precip. The pseudo 'eye' forming on the Colorado/Kansas border is also amazing to watch.Definitely one of the more beautiful inland lows I've seen in awhile.
Tomorrow looks like it could be a problem. I was looking at some of the soundings for TN and they are not good. Is anyone else noticing this?
That was my thought as well but I may have a stupid question... Is it possible the forcing may still be adequate due to the strength of the low?The environment looks impressive but things are hinging a lot on how much forcing there is for any sort of substantial Dixie threat. Looks more certain to the north in IN/OH/KY. The threat down here looks highly conditional at best, and I personally don't think our chances are that impressive that well knowing how these setups often play out with upper-level support quickly lifting off to the northwest. Keep an eye open but don't hold your breath either.
That was my thought as well but I may have a stupid question... Is it possible the forcing may still be adequate due to the strength of the low?
If pressure falls was more impressive... we would be looking at pretty good tornado threat for a lot of south...The forcing has more to do with the upper level support and pressure falls in the threat area and not necessarily the strength of the low. While it's a very impressive low, it's quite compact (hence the insane wind damage reports out across the Plains today), and it's pretty far away from the threat area. The pressure falls over the region don't look overly impressive even with the strong low.
What’s the odds that changes any?If pressure falls was more impressive... we would be looking at pretty good tornado threat for a lot of south...
To be honest. Pretty slim ...models never really picked up on that ...What’s the odds that changes any?