CheeselandSkies
Member
Yikes, "PDS TOR" soundings in abundance across AL on the 06Z GFS at hour 90. Moreover, the wind profile and analog lists back it up.
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Forecast soundings on the 06z GFS keep triggering Super Tuesday as an analog...
Edit: 06z, whoops
Re: Recovery. I'm seeing a lot of similarities to 4/5/17 last year, so it's why I'm still a little iffy on this system and I haven't been posting much about it. The GFS, while it has improved some, still has that nasty lead wave in the morning that I am highly concerned could throw a wrench in the wind fields. Also, the Euro has a nonexistent LLJ in the afternoon and the 0z run in general was still a total mess.. I need to see more from this system before getting legitimately concerned about it. There have been improvements but I've been burned too much the last year by jumping on board more than about 48 hours out..
The NAM is outbreak level stuff for Monday. Just bad.
Models are trending worse.
4/5/17 was nothing to scoff at. At least two of the officially-rated EF2 tornadoes were likely at EF3+ strength over rural areas.Analogy to 4/5/17? Better alert Delta!
The NAM has a stronger LLJ.Yeah. Something doesn't seem right with the 12z NAM. Just look at it compared with the 12z GFS. There are areas where the NAM has 500+ SRH and the GFS is only in the 200s. Did the NAM goof up the track of the surface low or something like that? There's a big discrepancy between it and the GFS in that respect.
Yeah, that's a good point about the LLJ, especially earlier in the day back in MS.
I missed most of the 5 April event last year because I was traveling back from Michigan, what went wrong that day?
The NAM has a stronger LLJ.
I'll be more interested in what the NAM is saying at 60 hours out instead of 80+. I'm always leery of end-of-range data from these things.
This is also after the EURO has been sounding the alarm. Quite the agreement this far out.While I feel the same way as a general rule, the GFS isn't too far from the NAM depiction once you remember that it usually underdoes shear because it can't handle processes associated with pressure falls and height falls well (a long-standing issue)... and that it often doesn't handle thermos too well either, and has been way off with systems so far this year (even the NAM has underdone thermos, when in years past, it would usually be too unstable or too moist). Then, a big important thing to remember is that the upper system started getting sampled by our balloon network this morning in time for the 12Z observed soundings... and that data was ingested into the 12Z models.