Hurricane Eta

[Taylor Campbell]

Invest 96L is in the Caribbean and likely to become the 29th storm of the season. It would be called Eta. It’s ridiculous to see so many model forecast of this to become a major hurricane and to make landfall in the United States in early November. Incredible Hurricane Season 2020 lives on.

Edit: this is actually the 28th storm of the season.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

TD 29 at 5 PM, now TS Eta.

Track forecast is currently for a landfall near the Nicaragua/Honduras border, but the GEFS ensemble remains insistent on another idea...

 

[warneagle]

And Eta becomes the fifth *consecutive* storm to rapidly intensify.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

And Eta becomes the fifth *consecutive* storm to rapidly intensify.

It won’t be long before it’s a major.

 

[MattW]

And about half the models seem to take it back toward the Gulf!

 

[Taylor Campbell]

It’s so beautiful!

 

[warneagle]

The flooding/mudslides in Central America could be really bad. Reminds me a lot of Mitch.

 

[warneagle]

Eta is blowing up now.

 

[WesL]

I like to have these advisories in the thread just in case someone wants to relive the storm many years later.

Hurricane Eta Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 AM EST Mon Nov 02 2020

...ETA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE SOON...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH
FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 81.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES

 

[TornadoFan]

Eta is now a major hurricane as of the 1 PM update.

 

[warneagle]

The HWRF is creating a Harvey-like scenario for eastern Honduras and Nicaragua.

 

[gangstonc]

She has a pinhole eye now. I wouldn’t be surprised if she is a cat 4

 

[WesL]

Hurricane Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
100 PM EST Mon Nov 02 2020

...ETA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH
FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 82.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES

 

[Kory]

She has a pinhole eye now. I wouldn’t be surprised if she is a cat 4

Satellite estimates are high end category 4.

 

[warneagle]

Wow, this is jaw-dropping.

 

[warneagle]

4 PM update: Cat 4, 130 mph and 948 mb.

 

[KoD]

Incredible intensification. The models are even more wild. GFS has it going around Cuba and in the fantasy range a ridge drives it into the GOM. Euro shows it reintensifying into a monster south of Cuba for a couple days.
Given the trend this year it'll find a way to hit Louisiana.

 

[Kory]

Ugh we won’t get reconnaissance because of continued issues with the aircraft. Multiple times it was scrubbed for Zeta. Now Eta.

 

[Kory]

Incredible intensification. The models are even more wild. GFS has it going around Cuba and in the fantasy range a ridge drives it into the GOM. Euro shows it reintensifying into a monster south of Cuba for a couple days.
Given the trend this year it'll find a way to hit Louisiana.

Yeah, this time of year can have some crazy paths as upper level winds change much more frequently and stronger with troughs and ridges. One of the most bizarre Caribbean storms was “wrong way Lenny.”

Hurricane Lenny - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[WesL]

Hurricane Eta Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 PM EST Mon Nov 02 2020

...ETA BECOMES A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE AS CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH
FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 82.3W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES