KevinH
Member
High ceiling yes, but what about confidence?12z GEFS is pretty incredible for this timeframe. There is a very high ceiling on this period if we get troughs ejecting coherently.
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High ceiling yes, but what about confidence?12z GEFS is pretty incredible for this timeframe. There is a very high ceiling on this period if we get troughs ejecting coherently.
I have confidence that there will be severe weather next week and that it should be an above climo period, but ejection of the individual waves will decide whether the ceiling is approached or not.High ceiling yes, but what about confidence?
Fair.I have confidence that there will be severe weather next week and that it should be an above climo period, but ejection of the individual waves will decide whether the ceiling is approached or not.
Wow!
Talk about a warm sector!
Wow. Ouch !
Wow. Ouch !
HOWEVER, ON TUESDAY, AS THE UPPER TROUGH EJECTS
EAST AND SPREADS INTENSE DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
LOWER/MID-MS VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY, A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL
SURGE EAST. RICH GULF MOISTURE ACROSS A BROAD WARM SECTOR WILL
SUPPLY PLENTY OF INSTABILITY, AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID-MS/LOWER OH
VALLEY TOWARD THE MID-SOUTH AND TN VALLEY.
Will just repost my tweet here, but all three ensemble means are honing in on Tuesday becoming a potential widespread, significant severe event.