Severe WX April 29-May 2nd, 2022 Severe Weather Threat

[Shakespeare 2016]

20Z HRRR.
View attachment 13667

Is that 3,500 to 4,000 J/KG of CAPE in my area?

 

[UK_EF4]

Not really sure on performance of this model tool, but these 'WOFS' model runs do seem pretty concerning, with I would say 80-90% modelling robust supercells from Kansas through Central Oklahoma along the dryline.

Here is the link if anyone who wants to look for themselves:

Cb-WoFS -

app-wofs-test-003.azurewebsites.net

 

[TornadoFan]

Not really sure on performance of this model tool, but these 'WOFS' model runs do seem pretty concerning, with I would say 80-90% modelling robust supercells from Kansas through Central Oklahoma along the dryline.
View attachment 13669
Here is the link if anyone who wants to look for themselves:

Cb-WoFS -

app-wofs-test-003.azurewebsites.net

20Z HRRR is getting onboard with that too.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

 

[TH2002]

Still a stout cap that has to be broken in that area though Norman's latest (21Z/3:30 PM) balloon launch shows it weakening considerably, so I don't expect it to stick around for much longer.

 

[Tennie]

 

[Tennie]

First TOR of the day, and it's a confirmed one:

404
WFUS53 KGID 292157
TORGID
KSC147-NEC083-292230-
/O.NEW.KGID.TO.W.0001.220429T2157Z-220429T2230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Hastings NE
457 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

The National Weather Service in Hastings has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northwestern Phillips County in north central Kansas...
Southwestern Harlan County in south central Nebraska...

* Until 530 PM CDT.

* At 457 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Stamford, or 22
miles northeast of Norton, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Broadcast media confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northwestern Phillips and southwestern Harlan Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4012 9962 4012 9939 3995 9945 4002 9963
4010 9963
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 278DEG 13KT 4007 9959

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN

$$

Billings Wright

 

[UK_EF4]

21z HRRR hot off the press and wow...

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Special weather statement out for Durham, KS storm.

 

[Tennie]

Tornado watch issued for central OK, with 60/50 tornado probs.

Storm Prediction Center Severe Thunderstorm Watch 159

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Special weather statement out for Durham, KS storm.

Now a severe thunderstorm warning. This on a direction towards Manhattan, KS and higher storm relative helicity.

 

[atrainguy]

Looks like this is the tornado that caused the warning earlier.

 

[atrainguy]

New tornado warning in Nebraska.

 

[TH2002]

Eyes on the cell developing SE of Salina

 

[Tennie]

TOR for Keene, NE:

048
WFUS53 KGID 292226
TORGID
NEC061-099-292300-
/O.NEW.KGID.TO.W.0002.220429T2226Z-220429T2300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Hastings NE
526 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

The National Weather Service in Hastings has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northeastern Franklin County in south central Nebraska...
Southern Kearney County in south central Nebraska...

* Until 600 PM CDT.

* At 526 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Axtell, or 17 miles east of Holdrege, moving east
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and hail up to two inches in diameter.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Minden.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4039 9910 4049 9911 4053 9884 4033 9873
4033 9897
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 266DEG 13KT 4044 9905

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN

$$

Thies

 

[TornadoFan]

Storm near Minden, Nebraska looks like it's fixing to produce.

 

[Bevo]

Scattered hail up to DVD size?! I can’t recall ever having seen that size comparison in the graphics. That’s around 5” isn’t it?

 

[TH2002]

Looks like the Concordia monster supercell might finally be trying to produce now, just went TOR warned with reports of a funnel cloud near Clyde

 

[SilentShadow87]

The Dickinson County storm might be producing too.

 

[TornadoFan]

Dickinson County storm is REALLY getting it's act together.